Sunday, January 27, 2013

The Worst 30 Draft Choices (By Pick) of the Last 12 Years

Something I put together on a whim this afternoon, the worst picks (1 through 30) of the last 12 years.

PART 1: Picks 1-10

01. Rick DiPietro, NY Islanders (2000): Now, let's get this straight, DiPietro was actually a pretty good goalie at one point before injuries basically robbed him of his ability to be a #1 goalie, and injuries alone are not why he's here. Secondly, it's not DiPietro's fault that Islanders owner Charles Wang gave him that ridiculous contract (15 years, $67.5 million) so that's also not the only reason he's the worst #1 pick. Thirdly, it's not just because the Islanders could/should have done the easiest thing and chosen the consensus top pick Dany Heatley and had someone to alleviate their scoring woes for the next however many years (Though if Heatley wanted out of Ottawa and refused to okay a trade to Edmonton, I'd imagine he wouldn't have stayed too long on Long Island). Fourthly, it's not just because this was Isles then-GM Mike Milbury's big move of wanting to be the first GM to draft an American goalie at #1. And fifthly, it's not just because to make room for DiPietro, Milbury made possibly the worst trade in NHL history and dealt then-Islander Roberto Luongo (Who had been the Isles first round pick just three years prior) and future 90 point forward Olli Jokinen to Florida in exchange for Mark Parrish and Oleg Kvasha. But, when you take all of those individual facets and put them together, it makes for THE worst #1 pick since the year 2000, hands down. The move is just mind-boggling, you have a future #1 goalie like Luongo (who had NHL experience and had played well) and you deal him away to choose a guy who really wasn't a consensus #1 overall pick (So, at worst, if Milbury was set on the guy, he could've tried trading down a couple spots and picking up extra picks), passing on future 50-goal scorers like Dany Heatley and Marian Gaborik and setting your rebuild back a few more years Just bad.


02. Kari Lehtonen, Atlanta (2002) Can you believe he's the actual worst #2 pick of the last 12 years? It's true, the only other player I had in the mix here was James van Riemsdyk, whom you could argue is maybe less valuable than Lehtonen, but he's really only been around a few years. So, yeah, by no means am I calling Lehtonen a bad pick at #2, he's an entirely worthy #2 pick, it's just the other guys (Ryan Murray; Gabriel Landeskog; Tyler Seguin; Victor Hedman; Drew Doughty; JVR; Jordan Staal; Bobby Ryan; Evgeni Malkin; Eric Staal; Jason Spezza; Dany Heatley: you've got a couple Calders, a Hart, a couple 100 point seasons, and a handful of Stanley Cups) are so good. About the worst things you can say about Lehtonen is he was particularly injury-prone in Atlanta before being dealt to Dallas, and that there were a couple of goalies in the 2002 draft chosen after him that maybe turned out better: Cam Ward (#25) and Josh Harding (#38). So, yeah, I guess Kari Lehtonen (Or possibly James van Riemsdyk) is the worst #2 pick of a very good group of #2 picks. In other words, if you have the #1 pick, you might be better off trading down to #2 because they're less likely to disappoint.


03. Alexander Svitov, Tampa Bay (2001): Finally, an actual bad pick. Svitov's one of those guys who you saw drafted all the time back in the day, but that teams have backed off of since the 04-05 lockout: guys with interesting numbers (Only twice before his draft year did he ever average more than a point-per-game, one of those being in the 99-00 U-18s where he put up 8 points in 6 games) but are more impressive because of their size (Svitov grew to be a monstrous 6'3", 234 lbs). After just 74 games with Tampa Bay, they dealt him to Columbus (with a pick) for Darryl Sydor (and a pick). Interestingly, he stayed in the AHL through the lock-out, but then took off back to Russia as soon as it was over, but returned to the NHL in 2006-07 where he finally found his NHL niche as a bottom six 2-way forward who was willing to fight and use his size. Columbus gave him a 2 year deal, but Svitov decided to bolt after one and headed back to Russia (This was before the NHL and KHL decided to stop poaching each other's contracted players). Every couple years there's some noise about Svitov coming back to North America, but realistically it's probably not going to happen. He's not a poor player, but he's a poor #3 pick. It doesn't help his case that the next pick after him was Stephen Weiss, Mikko Koivu at #6, Tuomo Ruutu at #9, Ales Hemsky at #13 and R.J. Umberger at #16.


04. Thomas Hickey, Los Angeles (2007): Hickey's not a bad player (He recently made his NHL debut this season with the Islanders), but for where he was picked, he was absolutely a bad pick. He was actually a reach at the time it was made. As detailed in the book 'Future Greats and Heartbreaks', Picks 1-3 were set with 3 guys in the mix for the #4 slot when LA went way off the board and grabbed Hickey, Columbus was overjoyed because it meant they would get the guy they wanted (Jakub Voracek). In fact, a little scouring of the internet turns up the Central Scouting rankings for 2007 and Hickey is way down at #26 for North American skaters. When interviewed about it, Kings GM Dean Lombardi said at the time that Hickey was the guy they wanted, they tried to trade down and take him a little later and when no offer was acceptable, they just took Hickey. Then, shortly thereafter, Hickey got hurt which stunted his development and the Kings drafted future Cup-winners Drew Doughty and Slava Voynov who bypassed him on the depth chart and there was just never room for Hickey. This season, with Hickey eligible for waivers, the Kings gave him a symbolic try-out for the team (He never had a prayer), put him on waivers and the Islanders claimed him. He could still turn out to be a pretty good player, but he's unlikely to ever be less than a reach at #4. Though, it is possible he passes honourable mention Benoit Pouliot, selected fourth by Minnesota in 2005.


05. Stanislav Chistov, Anaheim (2001): There was a point where Chistov looked like he was going to be an actual good pick. He picked up 30 points with the Ducks in his first season as a 19-year-old, then dipped to 18 in 56 in his second season with the Ducks. Apparently, he decided to up the physical component in his game (or just got frustrated) because he put up 141 PIM in the AHL the following season, then went back to Russia during the lock-out. Once it was over, Brian Burke became GM of Anaheim and you know a little skill guy like Chistov wasn't likely to be in his the plans for his big, bad Ducks and he was dealt to Boston for a draft pick, putting up 13 points with the Bruins before going back to Russia for good, but more importantly, he missed out on a chance to play for the Ducks who went on to win the Stanley Cup. He was coached by Dave King, who wrote a book about his coaching exploits in Russia, and some say he was the player King was referring to when he described The Fish: an excellent talent with an alleged alcohol problem. Either way, I don't think you'll see Chistov in the NHL again, and the players selected after Svitov above (Save Weiss) are the same players who were drafted after Chistov: Mikko Koivu, Tuomo Ruutu, Ales Hemsky and R.J. Umberger.