I've had this finished for a while, but thought I'd take the summer off before posting it, but with training camps opening, I thought it was time to publish it! For the moment, this only includes players I've seen, so some highly-regarded players like Carter Cochrane (who played the majority of last season in the BCHL), Evan Fiala (only 2 WHL games this year) and all the players chosen in this year's CHL Import Draft won't be on here.
01. PAUL BITTNER, RW (6'04", 194 lbs) Portland [63•22•27•49•25•27]: Huge forward struggled to start find a role to start the year but his production exploded from December onwards, putting up 17 of his 22 goals and 35 of his 49 points during that last stretch of the season. Incredibly skilled forward, by many accounts is just growing into his mammoth frame, and has wonderful hockey sense and intelligence. QUOTE: Mike Johnston, then-Portland Coach/GM: "Next year I think he'll be a 30- to 40-goal guy. He'll be really tough to handle at 18 and 19. He's going to be a big, big guy when he fills out. He'll be an elite player." From April 2014
02. MATHEW BARZAL, C (5'11", 171 lbs) Seattle [59•14•40•54•3•20]: Barzal came as advertised: a supremely talented player and a playmaker with an almost sixth-sense as to when and where his teammates will be. Had an exceptional first season in the WHL where his monthly production only twice dipped below .78 points-per-game (In November, when he put up .64 and January when he dipped to a season low .57 with 4 points in 7 games). Played for Canada in the 2014 Under-18s where he played well until a giveaway in overtime of Canada's semifinal game resulted in the opposing Czech Republic scoring the winning goal Will need to quickly put that behind him and move forward. QUOTE: STEVE KONOWALCHUK, Seattle coach: "It's pretty impressive the amount of offence he generates. He's just a smart player who makes good plays and good decisions with the puck." From October 2013:
03. NICK MERKLEY, C (5'10", 176 lbs) Kelowna [66•25•33•58•24•46]: Very heady player whose game really took off when put on a line with Rourke Chartier and new acquisition Marek Tvrdon and saw him put up 13 of his 25 goals and 23 of his 58 points in the last 21 games of the season. Continued to play big minutes in the playoffs for Kelowna at the tender age of sixteen, and finished 1 point of the team lead with 17 points in 14 games. Excellent playmaker with more physical play than you'd think. QUOTE: ANONYMOUS SCOUT, ISS: "Productive two-way forward...creates scoring opportunities...excellent work ethic...great edge use...anticipates the play...plays in all situations." From January 2014
04. RYAN PILON, D (6'02", 212 lbs) Brandon [66•7•29•36•-13•46]: Big two-way defenceman created waves this year when he left team in Lethbridge and demanded a trade elsewhere. It's the type of move that annoys hockey folks and fans alike, but after watching Lethbridge's miserable season and all the off-ice drama, it's hard not to say that he made the right decision for his development, even if it wasn't the most honourable thing to do. Pilon moved on, though, and after a rocky start (His trade took place in November and he put up just 4 points in 18 games over November and December), his offensive game took off in the new year and he put up 25 of his 36 points in 2014. Pilon, a late '96 birthday, is already NHL size and plays a solid, physical game in his own zone and a solid, ever-improving offensive game. QUOTE: BRAD ROBSON, Lethbridge GM: "[He]’s a big strong kid with lots of offensive ability and he can play any area of the rink." From 2011
05. PARKER WOTHERSPOON, D (6'00", 170 lbs) Tri-City [62•2•16•18•0•74]: Younger brother of Calgary Flames prospect Tyler Wotherspoon looks to be following in his footsteps as an outstanding WHL defenceman. His offensive game was a little slow in developing this season, putting up just 2 points in his first 15 games, but he had a big January where he put up 10 of his 18 points in just 11 games. Was drafted as somewhat of a offensive, power-play specialist but he's developed a solid two-way game that lets him play lots of minutes in all situations and has a lot of grit to his game as he lead all 2015 draft eligible players with 74 penalty minutes. QUOTE: BOB TORY, Tri-City GM: "He is an intense player who plays with an edge and exhibits tremendous leadership qualities." From 2012
06. TROY MURRAY, D (6'01", 175 lbs) Kootenay [64•0•12•12•-9•10]: He really opened my eyes down the stretch and in the playoffs when the Ice were beset by numerous injuries to their blueline and Murray stepped up into a Top 4 role with loads of ice-time and played really sound, error-free hockey in his own zone. The younger brother of Columbus d-man Ryan Murray, Troy's career is showing a similar arc, that of a defenceman who doesn't put up gaudy numbers (No goals all season and just 13 assists over 77 games when you factor in the playoffs) but looks like a veteran when diffusing opposition scoring chances. If his offensive game picks up, just a tick, he could be a candidate for the top spot. QUOTE: IAN ESPLEN, Hockey Now blogger: "LIke his older brother, Murray is a good skater, who thinks the game well." From November 2013
07. JOE GATENBY, D (6'00", 170 lbs) Kelowna [43•0•6•6•7•20]: Another solid defensive defenceman, Gatenby seized a roster spot early on the season with the CHL-leading Rockets and never let go, forcing the older, more-heralded Jesse Lees to take a spot on the wings in order to get ice-time. Gatenby looks to be another in the long line of NHL-calibre defencemen produced in Kelowna (Joining such names as Duncan Keith, Shea Weber, Tyler Myers, Alex Edler and Tyson Barrie). His offensive game is rather raw at the moment, but he does have some tools. Where he really shines, though, is in his own zone where he's physical but not reckless and shuts down opposing forwards with heady play, hard work and an active stick. QUOTE: LANE LAMBERT, then-Kelowna Assistant Coach: "His compete and composure with the puck was where it needed to be and he's shown he can play on a regular basis. He's been able to handle whatever minutes we've thrown at him and on some nights, he's been in our top four." From 2014
08. GIORGIO ESTEPHAN, C (6'00", 184 lbs) Lethbridge [64•12•12•24•-25•18]: Estephan was one of the bright spots on a weak Lethbridge team this past season. He has a willingness to play physical and go to high-traffic areas and has tremendous offensive talents. His -25 +/- rating looks bad, but take out the month of January and he'd be a much more respectable -15 and it's also a good indication of just how much Estephan played and that he played in all situations which doesn't help a number like Plus/Minus. I was repeatedly surprised last year that he was only listed at 6'00" and 184 as he played much bigger out there. If he adds some muscle and another inch or so, he could be a real find. QUOTE: DRAKE BEREHOWSKY, Lethbridge coach: "He's learning here and he's coming along really well...he's expanded his role and he's done a great job being able to change and learn new things...Every day will change and that's what's nice about him. He's been able to adapt and he's been able to change. That enables us to put him in a lot of different roles that we need and when he does play those roles he does a great job." From 2014
09. ADAM MUSIL, C (6'03", 193 lbs) Red Deer [60•11•18•29•5•36]: I always find it fascinating when the son of a former player grows to play a style that is nothing like his father. His father Frank Musil was a longtime NHLer who played a physical, unspectacular defensive role, his uncle Bobby Holik played a long time in the NHL in mostly a grinding, checking physical role and his brother David Musil plays in the AHL under contract to Edmonton and plays a methodical defensive style, but Adam Musil, despite his size, is a scoring forward with good skating. In his first year in the WHL, he put up a solid 11 goals and 29 points in 60 games with Red Deer, despite often getting 3rd and 4th line minutes and he's just one year removed from averaging 1.38 points-per-game in the BCMML and two years removed from averaging 1.63 points-per-game. Musil could be a real force when he grows into his body and adds a physical element to his game. QUOTE: FRANK MUSIL, Edmonton Scout/Adam's father: "[On comparisions to brother David] Completely different personalities. David's more level-headed. I compare David to a diesel engine. You start the engine and it will run 500,000 kilometres. Adam, he's more of a Ferrari. He can fly 250 miles per hour or break on the starting line." From 2012
10. RYAN GROPP, LW (6'03", 190 lbs) Seattle [59•18•24•42•-5•22]: Gropp was all set to go through the US collegiate system when he saw the assemblage of talent in Seattle and determined it was a better route for him. With his size and skill and playing alongside Mathew Barzal this year, I think his stock is going to skyrocket. I might have him a little low here, in all honesty, but most of that one can chalk up to limited viewings of him. Had a bit of a slow start to his WHL career as he only had 7 points in his first 13 games, but his play exploded in January when he put up 7 goals and 15 points in just 14 games and was a solid .70 point-per-game pace to finish out the season after that. Had a really solid U-18 tournament where he didn't score much but played with a tad more physical oomph. QUOTE: RUSS FARWELL, Seattle GM: "Because of his ability to make plays at top speed he is going to be a great addition to our team." From 2013
11. TYLER SOY, C (5'11", 168 lbs) Victoria [65•15•15•30•1•15]: Soy is an excellent two-way pivot who has yet to really cement his niche in the WHL and that is what has kept him out of the upper echelons of my list. Very quick and very good playmaker, Soy's biggest problem is that he was stuck behind a lot of older forwards with a very good Victoria team and was mostly used in 3rd line and energy line situations for a good portion of the season, and he lost most of his power-play time in the second half of the year. He needs to get much stronger and add some bulk to his frame. QUOTE: CHAZ REDDEKOPP, Victoria teamate: "It is tough to cover Tyler. He protects the puck so well and is hard to knock off it." From 2013
12. BRANDON CARLO, D (6'05", 185 lbs) Tri-City [71•3•10•13•-13•66]: The first thing you have to talk about with Carlo is size, and at 6'5", he has it in abundance. He's mostly a defence-first defenceman but he's not a bad skater for his size and uses an active stick to make it tough on forwards to get around him. What's intriguing is that he might have some previously-untapped offensive upside, as well, as he only put up 2 points in his first 29 games, but increased usage and ice-time restulted in him putting up 9 points in his last 33 games (Including a 5 assist January!). Carlo also has developing mean-streak and took 66 minutes in penalties which puts him third amongst 2015 draft eligible players in the WHL this season. QUOTE: CARLO, on himself: "I have a big stick and body and am tough to get around. I'm strong along the boards and in the corners. I am good at starting transition but I do need to work on developing my offense." From 2014
13. NOAH JUULSEN, D (6'01", 165 lbs) Everett [59•2•8•10•12•32]: Juulsen is another player who would likely have been high on my preliminary list had I seen more of him. He's a good-sized defenceman with a smooth-skating stride and a rugged quality to his game. As Juulsen got more comfortable in the WHL this year, his physical game grew, as evidenced by his penalty minutes: just 6 in his first 30 games, but 26 in his last 29. QUOTE: GARRY DAVIDSON, Everett GM: "[On Juulsen and teammate Matt Fonteyne] "Both get around the ice well, have good hockey sense and bring a skill package that will serve them well..." From 2013
14. KEONI TEXEIRA, D (6'00", 194 lbs) Portland [65•2•14•16•21•30]: Texeira's game improved by leaps and bounds over the course of Portland's excellent season, going from a bit player with few points (Just 2 assists in his first 14 games) to a 2-way defenceman with increased ice-time (14 points over his next 47, spiked by a terrific January in which he put up 5 points in 9 games) who even took a regular shift deep into the WHL playoffs. Though he's of average size, he plays physical in his own and is rarely beaten clean. The interesting dynamic to watch is how a Portland team that's expected to lose many key veterans responds next year and if Texeira was a by-product of a talented team or a talented player in his own right. QUOTE: MIKE JOHNSTON, then-Portland Coach/GM: "A dynamic two-way player." From 2012
15. ETHAN BEAR, D (5'11", 188 lbs) Seattle [58•6•13•19•1•18]: I expect the offensive defenceman to have a monster year this year coming up as he'll likely get #1 power-play unit time and to work with Mathew Barzal and Ryan Gropp. Bear's hockey sense and smarts are very good and he has a good solid shot that he seems to always get through. He needs to get strong and establish himself as a better defensive-zone presence, but that's not uncommon for prospects his age. Had a nightmarish end to the regular season with 0 points in his last 9 games to go with a -7 rating but rebounded in the playoffs to put up 4 points in the Thunderbirds 9 game post-season run. QUOTE: RUSS FARWELL, Seattle GM: "A very smart puck moving defenseman who has a definite physical edge to his game." From 2012
16. JANSEN HARKINS, C (6'01", 170 lbs) Prince George [67•10•24•34•-9•18]: Harkins started the season off slow, relegated to a lower line before the Cougars decided to give him more ice-time as they turned the team over to their younger players in the new year and Harkins responded with an impressive offensive display. After just 10 points in his first 37 games, he piled up 24 points in his last 30 en route to a solide 34 point season. Harkins has a nice, projectable NHL frame but needs to add bulkk and get stronger. He's a real character player who works hard on the ice, using that effort to get to loose rebounds. QUOTE: WADE KLIPENSTEIN, Prince George Director of Player Development/Assistant GM: "The best word to describe him is 'complete'. We really like his character. He's definitely a a franchise guy."
17. CAMERON HEBIG, C (5'10", 168 lbs) Saskatoon [67•13•13•26•-35•20]: Cameron Hebig's season got off to a terrible start, just 5 points in his first 38 games for a player noted for his scoring ability, there must have been some doubts creeping into his mind. But, then came the World Hockey Championship U-17 tourney and Hebig had a solid 3 points in 5 games for Team Saskatchewan and the experience restored his confidence and he returned to the Blades a new man: putting up 21 points in his last 29 games (A point-per-game ratio of .75!). Hebig is not a big forward, but he competes hard and has a high level of skill and vision. QUOTE: CODY NICKOLET, Junior hockey scout: "He impressed me last year with his vision, skating and compete. He's done the same this year, except that he's 3 inches taller and 30 pounds heavier than last year."
18. JAKE DEBRUSK, LW (5'11", 167 lbs) Swift Current [72•15•24•39•8•21]: Son of former NHL heavyweight fighter Louie DeBrusk, the younger DeBrusk is a total opposite player of his pugilist father. DeBrusk is a small, skilled winger with ample offensive ability. Struggled to find his way in the early-going (5 points in his first 17 games), he rounded into form and from November through to the end of the season, he had 34 points in his last 55 games. QUOTE: BRAD BROWN, The Prairie Post reporter: “He’s quick, has good instincts and isn’t afraid to get physical...”
19. TYLER ROBERTSON, LW (6'01", 175 lbs) Edmonton [26•1•1•2•-2•7]: A funny thing happened to Tyler Robertson when the Edmonton Oil Kings went on their Memorial Cup-winning playoff run, he became one of coach Derek Laxdal's most trusted energy line forwards. Despite only getting into 26 games with the Oil Kings after being signed in December and only putting up 2 points over that time period, Robertson's consistently high compete level, defensive conscience, and penchant for clutch play made got him a regular shift in the playoffs where he played in all 21 of the Oil kings playoff games and 5 more games at the Memorial Cup where, again, he scored a key goal for Edmonton. Obviously not at the same offensive level as him, but that reminded me a lot of the way Curtis Lazar played his way into Laxdal's good books with his excellent playoff campaign in 2012. With lots of players graduating this year, expect Robertson to get a lot more regular season ice-time. QUOTE: RANDY HANSCH, Edmonton GM: "Tyler's an honest two-way player that's very responsible...He's a player that's starting to grow into his game..."
20. JESSE GABRIELLE, LW (5'11", 201 lbs) Brandon [49•12•14•26•-2•68]: The ranking that will probably cause the most consternation is Gabrielle down here but before anyone gets too worked up, it's mostly due to a lack of viewings. Gabrielle, a 5'11", 201 pound spitfire, had a terrific season, potting 26 points along with 68 penalty minutes, to boot. He has great skill and compete, but needs to work on his agility. I think he'll probably catapult up my list once I have a chance to see him, but I just don't think I saw him once this year, despite seeing Brandon several times. QUOTE: DEREK FELSKA, The State of Hockey blogger: "This kid is a very special talent as a freshma, who demonstrated great skill, nice poise, good speed and a wicked release..."
21. GLENN GAWDIN, C (6'01", 181 lbs) Swift Current [66•10•12•22•-11•34]: Big center had a solid first WHL season with Swift Current. Got off to a really good start but play tailed off over the course of the season (15 points in his first 38 games, just 7 in hist last 28). Would have likely been on the positive side of the +/- slate if not for the last two months of the season where he went -12. Was held off the scoresheet in all 6 of the Broncos playoff games. QUOTE: JAMIE PORTER, Swift Current Assistant GM/Director of Player Personnel: "He is a good sized right handed shot. He skates well, we really like his skill level and compete level and we think he will develop into an impact player for our organization."
22. BRAD MORRISON, C (5'11", 161 lbs) Prince George [55•12•9•21•-4•12]: Slight center saw his role on the team grow by leaps and bounds in the second half of the season. Only 6 points after his first 29 games, but ended up putting up 15 points in the last 26. Should have a big role in a developing team next year. QUOTE: WADE KLIPPENSTEIN, Prince George Assistant GM/Director of Player Personnel: “He’s a very dynamic player. He scores goals, and that’s an area that we want to get better in. He’s a natural goal scorer.”
23. CHAZ REDDEKOPP, D (6'03", 215 lbs) Victoria [40•1•8•9•10•33]: Big, physical defender had limited role on a deep Victoria team this past year but went fearlessly into corners when he did play. Should see increased ice-time and presence next season with several teammates graduating. Interestingly, put up 7 of his 9 total points during the months of November and December when he played the most games (One-half of his total Games Played number took place in those two months) so an increased role should see an increase in stats next season. QUOTE: TYLER SOY, Victoria teammate: "Chaz is a big solid defenceman who plays physically but can also chip in offensively."
24. MATTEO GENNARO, C (6'02", 179 lbs) Prince Albert [60•5•10•15•-8•14]: Big, hard-working forward has a solid skill level, as well. Put up 11 of his 15 total points in the first three months of the season, but only 2 in his last 28 games. Had an excellent U-17s where he put up 8 points in just 6 games for Team Pacific. QUOTE: DALE DERKATCH, Prince Albert Director of Player Development: "He competes every shift, every second he's on the ice. He brings a work ethic and abilities to go with it."
25. ZAK ZBOROSKY, C (6'00", 172 lbs) Kootenay [66•8•13•21•-1•10]: Average-sized center plays much larger than his frame would indicate, before checking his stats, while watching him, I was sure he was 6'3"/200. Saw limited minutes behind talented Ice teammates but was an effective energy line player who put up some points and won the trust of coaching staff enough to be used in every Kootenay playoff game. From October through January, he averaged .44 points-per-game but just .08 the rest of the season. QUOTE: TREVOR CRAWLEY, blogger: “He was skating well, making smart plays and scoring goals...”
26. ALEC BAER, C (5'10", 150) Vancouver [60•8•10•18•8•22]: Small, highly-skilled pivot caused a minor scandal in Minnesota when he was kicked off his Minnesota team because of a visit to the Vancouver Giants team. Good, quick playmaking forward. Put up two-thirds of his 18 points in the months of October and December. QUOTE: PAT QUINN, Vancouver Giants part-owner: "[To Joe Sakic] Joe, this young man just may be the next you."
27. TERELL DRAUDE, C (6'03", 210 lbs) Calgary [47•1•6•7•1•9]: Big center saw limited minutes but made a big impression with his big frame that allows him to make room for himself in the offensive zone. Didn't have a single penalty minute until the month of January and still only ended up with 9 at season's end. Team will be expecting him to play more physical with his size which means that number should go way up next year. BOB BEATTY, Team Saskatchewan Head Coach for 2012 Under-16 Cup: "Offensively I think...Terell Draude who has got a big frame, can score."
28. BRADEN PURTILL, LW (6'00", 185 lbs) Tri-City [63•9•5•14•-7•35]: Purtill wasn't expected to secure a roster a spot as early as he did, but got into 63 games with Tri-City this year and picked up 10 of his 14 spots from December onward. Good quick forward. QUOTE: BOB TORY, Tri-City GM: "Braden is a highly skilled forward with very good speed and acceleration...He has a good shot and nose for the net."
29. GRAYSON PAWLENCHUK, LW (6'00", 180 lbs) Red Deer [44•7•12•19•-4•8]: Would be garnering a lot more attention if not for a broken elbow which robbed him of most of October, November and December. Before said injury he'd racked up 6 points in his first 5 games, then closed out the season well with 11 points in his last 34 games. QUOTE: BRENT SUTTER, Red Deer Coach/GM: "Pawly kind of flew under the radar screen and has basically developed into a [WHL Bantam Draft] first-round pick."
30. TY COMRIE, C (5'11", 150 lbs) Tri-City [64•3•6•9•-24•21]: Half-brother to former NHL players Mike and Paul Comrie, and brother of Winnipeg Jets prospect Eric Comrie, Ty is a lot like his half-brother Mike: a small-skilled center with speed and playmaking ability but he he still has the possibility of adding some height and weight to his frame. His numbers were bad this season, but he was a highly-sought after player in major junior and NCAA level so he'll be given more of an opportunity this season. QUOTE: BOB TORY, Tri-City GM: "Ty is an elite talent...turning down 5 NCAA scholarship opportunities to join our program and continues to make rapid improvements to his overall game. He is gifted with offensive creativity and, since being drafted, continues to excel among his peers as he has gained size and strength."
Monday, August 18, 2014
Friday, June 27, 2014
Top WHLers left after Day 1 of the NHL Draft
01. Pollock, Brett, C [6'02, 183] Edmonton, WHL (71•25•30•55•18•36): Big forward's game took gigantic leap forward in the playoffs. Strong skater with surprising explosiveness who is confident with the puck on his stick and shields it well with his body. Has an NHL-quality wrist-shot already. Sometimes lacks intensity, which isn't uncommon at his age, but when he's engaged, he's a dangerous presence. Isn't overly physical, but can really put a player on his back when he wants to. Excellent stickhandler with some unbelievable dangles but doesn't always protect it well-enough. Has a decent defensive conscience and an active stick while back-checking but doesn't always fully buy-in defensively. A really smart player who seems to have a sixth-sense about when to pass the puck and when to take it himself; very rarely gives the puck away once it hits his stick. INTERESTING STAT: His 11 goals led all WHL draft eligible players in the playoffs and he was second in points amongst draft eligibles with 19.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Vancouver Cacnucks, while scouting Virtanen, they must have seen a lot of Pollock. Should go fairly high in the second round.
02. Thomas, Ben, D [6'02, 193] Calgary, WHL (72•7•24•31•11•39): Physical two-way defenceman has a nice frame. Good zone exits and footspeed and has a beautiful hard point shot that he consistently gets on net. A really smooth point presence on the power-play but sometimes makes poor decisions on when to jump in on a rush. Plays a physical game in his own zone but has a tendency to get a little scrambly back there and can be pressured into turnovers. Has to watch his temper and he took some costly retaliatory penalties in the playoffs. INTERESTING STAT: His best month for points was in October when he put up 8 and averaged 0.57 points-per-game. He never averaged higher than 0.50 in any other month (Save the 2 games in September). Was a +17 through December and January.
Feels Like A Fit For: Tampa Bay. He could be the anchor to free-wheeling Anthony DeAngelo drafted today. He could slip into the third round.
03. Kirkland, Justin, LW [6'03, 189] Kelowna, WHL (68•17•31•48•23•40): Great, disruptive net-front presence and loves to battle defenders and play physical, and usually comes out a winner. Uses his big frame to shield the puck well and is a good stickhandler, though he can be dispossessed of the puck rather easily sometimes. Was used a lot on the penalty kill in the second half of the season. Is a really smart forward who likes to go to the net and is sneaky-quick with a strong stride for someone his size. Has an excellent wristshot that can pick the top corners with ease. Staring to become a force on the cycle and along the boards. INTERESTING STAT: Never posted a negative Plus/Minus rating in any months of the season. Also, his point-per-game totals went up every successive month from December through to March.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Boston Bruins. An honest hard-working big forward, sounds like a Bruin. Should go high in the second round, though he might slip in the latter half of the round.
04. Schoenborn, Alex, RW [6'01, 194] Portland, WHL (72•18•18•36•19•121): Power Forward in training is mean and chippy, always ticked off, and creates mayhem in front of the net. Solid skater with good acceleration. He's not a natural puckhandler, and doesn't always handle passes clean, but has a solid shot and is a decent playmaker. He sometimes succeeds on will, rather than skill. A relenteless forechecker, he and linemates Dominic Turgeon and Keegan Iverson were used in the playoffs to forecheck, cycle and grind out the puck and would repeatedly draw opposing penalties. Is used on the penalty-kill and even-strength but rarely on the power-play. INTERESTING STAT: If you subtracted his January totals, his points-per-game would raise one an 0.1 from 0.50 to 0.60 (He only had 1 goal in 14 games in January). He only failed to post double-digit penalty minute totals in September, when he had 6 in 4 games.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Pittsburgh Penguins. New coach Mike Johnston coached him in junior, used him a lot and would likely vouch for his toughness and character. Might slip into the third round.
05. Hawryluk, Jayce, C [5'10, 190] Brandon, WHL (59•24•40•64•16•44): Quick forward who never stops working. Despite his frame, wins most puck battles and plays physical. Is a speedy skater with quick hands, good puckhandling and an excellent wrist-shot. Makes things happen on the ice. Is also an excellent playmaker. Worrisome incident in the playoffs where he collapsed post-game and was rushed to hospital, but returned to play the next game and whatever it was seems to be a non-issue. INTRESTING STAT: Averaged just 0.73 points-per-game September/October but only failed to crack 1.20 points-per-game one other month in the season (January when he posted 0.67).
Feels Like A Fit For: The New Jersey Devils. The Devils took his teammate Quenneville in the first round, I'd imagine they were impressed with Hawryluk's sparkplug style. Should go high in the second round.
06. Turgeon, Dominic C [6'02, 196] Portland, WHL (65•10•21•31•18•31) : Son of NHL star Pierre Turgeon is a defensively responsible forward who needs to get stronger but is incredibly reliable. Game has grown steadily, albeit maybe less quickly than many expected. Is a solid playmaker who is only starting to recognize how his frame allows him to protect the puck from defencemen. Also played increasingly physical as the year went on and added a real edge to his game. Displays flashes of brilliance with beautiful dekes, stickhandling and power-moves to the net that create chances and goals but sometimes tries to force the pass when it isn't there. Valuable penalty-killer who seemed to get more ice-time as the season wore on. With Portland likely graduating 4-5 players to the pro ranks next year, I'm betting his numbers will see a quick spike with more, better playing time. INTERESTING STAT: Point-per-game averages were between 0.25 to 0.56 per month all season long, except for February when he had 12 points in 12 games.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Buffalo Sabres. His father Pierre was a great player there and Turgeon could be a great 2-way center lined up with either of the Isles first rounders: Michael Dal Colle and Josh Ho-Sang. Should be a mid-to-late second rounder.
07. Fazleev, Radel LW [6'00, 178] Calgary, WHL (38•5•20•25•1•12): Intelligent, two-way forward is very aggressive defensively, though sometimes a little too casual handling puck in own zone, but is still a trusted and useful penalty-killer. Offensively, he's pass-first and loves to set up his linemates from behind the net for one-timers but can be a tad impatient with the puck on his stick. Carries the puck well, losing defenders by changing his speeds and is a good stickhandler Not a great shooter, but plays the point on the power play which is useful for his puck distribution. Doesn't mind the rough stuff, but is occasionally undisciplined and takes bad retaliatory penalties. Missed the last three months of the season with an injury but came back for the playoffs. INTERESTING STAT: Would have finished the season in 18th had he not been injured and maintained his 0.66 point-per-game average, his injuries saw him finish 44th.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Tampa Bay Lightning. Steve Yzerman loves to pick Russians and loves to pick WHLers. I'd imagine he goes in the third round.
08. Point, Brayden, C [5'09, 160] Moose Jaw, WHL (72•36•55•91•-27•53): Supremely quick, he loses defenders with his speed and quick moves, or else meets them and spins off of them with the puck still on his stick. Has tons of confidence which he puts on display when he skates the puck effortlessly out of his own end and is surprisingly strong on the puck for his size. Puck seems to follow him in the offensive zone and he is a tireless forechecker who is adept at stealing the puck off his opponents' sticks. Very smart player who anticipates where rebounds will end up and gets to them first. He also uses these smarts to go into high-traffic areas and somehow emerge with the puck despite his size. Great passer who also possesses a big slap shot. INTERESTING STAT: Averaged an incredible 1.75 points-per-game in 2014. If he had maintained that pace all season, he would have led WHL draft eligibles in scoring by more than 20 points with 126. Also, despite his points, he only posted a positive +/- rating in February with +3.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Tampa Bay Lightning. Yzerman likes to go to the WHL and has no fear of undersized forwards.
09. Iverson, Keegan C [6'00, 216] Portland, WHL (67•22•20•42•16•70): Solid, physical player who is tough to stop when he drives to the net. Skating stride is a little choppy. Big hitter who generates chances off of the cycle and along the boards. Is man-strong already and opposing defenders have a terrible time controlling him as he keeps his feet moving in the offensive zone. Has a solid shot and makes some solid passes but doesn't have a lot of offensive creativity, often just throws the puck into the slot and hopes for the best. Has a defensive conscience and always comes back to help out. INTERESTING STAT: In months where he played 8 games (October and March, he averaged 0.88 points-per-game. He only cracked the 0.8 threshold one other time in the season.
Feels Like A Fit For: Nashville. Nashville likes drafting out of the WHL and former teammate/current Pred Seth Jones would likely go to bat for his competitiveness. Should go early in the second round.
10. De Leo, Chase C [5'10, 175] Portland, WHL (72•39•42•81•49•36): Really fast and incredibly shifty with a quick, accurate one-timer. Unbelievably evasive and has a nice spin move to roll off defenders. Wins battles he has no business winning along boards and out front by using his smarts Could stand to be more patient with the puck, sometimes just throws it in the middle when nothing else is available. Excellent vision and playmaking. That said, when the game gets tough, I don't notice him as much, he seems to disappear into the background until power-play comes up. INTERESTING STAT: Was a staggering +27 over the months of February and March.
Feels Like A Fit For: Pittsburgh, again the Mike Johnston connection, he'll know that De Leo's lack of size won't be an issue due to his hard-working nature. Might slip into the 3rd round.
11. Philp, Luke, C [5'10, 177] Kootenay, WHL (71•31•46•77•2•31): Smooth and smart forward who loves to go to the net and doesn't lack confidence. Really effective playing the point on the power-play with a heavy accurate slapshot and has a really nasty, tricky fake shot that he uses to get defenders off-balance. Isn't a great defender. Isn't a big guy but has some grit and even drops the gloves on occasion. Benefited a lot from Sam Reinhart, but often gave as good as he got with some really smart, clever passing. Is able to put separation between him and defenders with his skating and has a knack for getting to open spaces. Just a genuinely smart player with terrific hands. Whoever takes Reinhart would be smart to gamble on Philp as early as the second round. INTERESTING STAT: Finished the season 6th for goals scored, 6th for points scored and 6th for points-per-game.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Buffalo Sabres. He has great chemistry with Sam Reinhart, why not bank on that? Might be an early third rounder, but I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't drop very late.
12. Chartier, Rourke, C [5'11, 180] Kelowna, WHL (72•24•34•58•26•8): Had a terrible beginning to the season, but came alive in the second half. Excellent passer is quick and somehow able to shield the puck from defenders despite not being that big and is much stronger than you would expect and makes some power moves to the net An excellent stickhandler in traffic. A hard-wokring forward who never quits on a play and brings a ton of energy on every shift. Excellent in his own zone, was voted the 'Best Defensive Forward' on his team and is used a lot on the penalty kill. INTERESTING STAT: Went scorless in 10 games in October and only put up 5 points in 11 games in November, but after that his scoring was never at less than a point-per-game.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Phoenix Coyotes have drafted their fair share of WHLers and Kelowna Rockets. He should go in the third, maybe fourth round.
13. Irving, Aaron, D [6'01, 190] Edmonton, WHL (63•9•21•30•26•88): Was relied on heavily early in the season and looked like a breakout star, playing solid defence and jumping effortlessly into the rush which is the basis for his elevated ranking. Seemed to lose the confidence of his coach and his ice-time dropped majorly in the second-half of the season and played only sparingly in the playoffs. Has a nice proectable frame and the ability to jump into the play. Moves the puck well along the point and has a heavy accurate shot. Defensive game is rather inconsistent, looking like a shut-down defenceman one night and lost the next. With solid program in Edmonton, I think he'll figure it out in time. INTERESTING STAT: 27 of his 30 points came from September-December, a point-per-game ratio of 0.73 which was 0.25 higher than his season total.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton co-owns the team and has to have a pretty good handle on him. Could be a mid-to-late second rounder but I think he'll end up in the third or fourth round.
14. Mayo, Dysin, D [6'01. 180] Edmonton, WHL (63•7•28•35•17•50): Offensive defenceman who loves to jump into the play. Sometimes prone to overhandling the puck but has a solid shot that he usually succeeds in getting through. Needs to learn to recognize when less is more and not force a pass or shot. Can get panicky in own zone and pressured into making poor decisions. Not an overly physical player, but will stand up for self and teammates. INTERESTING STAT: Had just 6 points in his first 20 games (0.3 PpG) but had 29 in his last 43 (0.67 PpG).
Feels Like A Fit For: Ottawa. They likely kept tabs on Curtis Lazar this season and must have seen a lot of Mayo. Should go in the third round.
15. Bukarts, Rihards, LW [5'09, 189] Brandon, WHL (65•28•26•54•2•50): Loves to shoot the puck but is a decent passer who has a tendency to play a little too much one-on-one play on rushes. Then again, with stickhandling like his, he is often able to slice through the neutral-zone with precision. Is very quick to find open space, get there, and get open. Is very small and can be knocked off the puck but also displays a thrilling willingness to engage opponents with devastating bodychecks, gets into scrums and doesn't mind sacrificing his body to make a play. Father Ralf played professionally in Latvia, while brother Roberts plays in the KHL. INTERESTING STAT: Three times this season he was a Top 10 WHL draft eligible in goals.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Calgary Flames. He's small, skilled and European, but he's got grit and loves the open-ice hit, sounds like a Burke pick. Should go in the fifth round.
16. Baillie, Tyson, C [5'10, 187] Kelowna, WHL (56•22•33•55•19•53): Very intelligent and good on-ice awareness and staggering vision which contributes to his excellent passing. Stickhandles well in traffic, makes terrific plays at high speeds and has a terrific wrist-shot that he can get off mid-flight. Has a defensive conscience and a desire to play physical, but sometimes takes bad penalties. Sometimes tries to do too much and doesn't make decisions quick enough. Was really flying early in the season but play slowed down a little, then got injured and missed the bulk of the last two months of the season. INTERESTING STAT: Lead all WHL players in assists and points in December when he had 15 assists and 20 points in just 12 games.
Feels Like A Fit For: Detroit. They've drafted from Kelowna before and would recognize his smarts. Should go in the fourth or fifth round.
17. Nikolishin, Ivan, C [5'09, 160] Everett, WHL (72•18•41•59•-4•16): Shifty little forward has explosive straight-ahead speed but is supremely quick going side-to-side, as well. Is an offensive dynamo. Everett's power-play runs through him and he's dangerous: a great passer, a stinging wrist-shot and has unbelievable stickhandling in close quarters. Has a developed defensive conscience. Displays virtually no physical play whatsoever and his pro ceiling might eventually be that of a power-play specialist. Father Andre was a longtime NHL player. INTERESTING STAT: Was 7th amongst WHL draft eligible prospects in assist at the end of the season with 41, buoyed by his March in which he put up 9 assists in just 8 games.
Feels Like A Fit For: The LA Kings. They aren't afraid of drafting Russians, nor skill players. Should go somewhere in the fifth round.
18. Hicketts, Joe, D [5'08, 165] Victoria, WHL (36•6•18•24•25•12): Has great on-ice awareness and loves to jump into the play. Is a stabilizing presence on the point, has a huge point shot and makes excellent passes. Has a real knack for entering the zone safely, and at retrieving rebounds. s surprisingly physical, given his size and fearlessly steps into larger opponents or blocks shots. Fairly solid defensively with the occasional giveaway. Missed the better part of three months with an injury, then looked a little tentative on his return but rounded back into form come playoff time. INTERESTING STAT: His 9 penalty minutes during Victoria's 2nd round playoff series against Portland was more than Hicketts had in any single month of the regular season.
Feels Like A Fit For: Dallas isn't afraid of undersized d-men, Hicketts is a match. Should go in the sixth or seventh round.
19. Lang, Chase, RW [6'01, 182] Calgary, WHL (68•10•15•25•13•52): Solid frame that he uses to protect the puck well in the offensive zone and go into high-traffic areas. Trusted by coaching staff and was used to help defend some 5-on-3 penalty kills. Definition of pure will: Lang never stops working, will battle all shift long and is rarely beaten to loose pucks. Uses his speed as a real forechecking threat and forces turnovers galore. Very physical but has a tendency to take some bad penalties. Puck play improved as his season went on and displayed a nifty playmaking ability and an underrated shot. INTERESTING STAT: Had 1 point in his first 22 games, then 24 in his next 46. Penalty minute totals also took off in 2014, from 17 in the first half of the season, to 35 on the back half.
Feels Like A Fit For: Philadelphia. While scouting first rounder Travis Sanheim, I wouldn't be surprised if Lang turned some heads. His fiery, hard-working style is a fit for the Flyers. Should be a late-rounder.
20. Sleptsov, Alexei, D [6'00, 165] Moose Jaw, WHL (66•4•21•25•-20•44): Solid skater who makes a good first pass. Defensive play isn't his forte, but uses his skating to get him out of trouble. Confidence grew as season wore on and he got more daring, maybe even a little cavalier skating the puck out of his own zone. Solid power-play quarterback with a hard point shot. Smart player who is quick to jump on loose pucks. INTERESTING STAT: Had an almost perfect split of scoring stats with 12 points in his first half and 13 in the second, however his +/- was glaringly better in 2014 where he was only -6 while posting a -14 in the first four months of the year.
Feels Like A Fit For: Montreal. They took a skilled Russian playing in the WHL in the first round, why not a skilled Russian d-man late in the draft. Should be a seventh rounder.
21. Gutierrez, Justin, C [6'04, 185] Tri-City, WHL (70•3•18•21•-14•103): Big forward is still growing into his body, but has quick feet and gets up to good top speed. Acceleration needs some work, but it's just a little gangly right now. Has some great tools, like aformentioned speed, a huge reach that allow him to protect the puck from defenders and a really solid playmaking game. Sometimes looks like he doesn't want to get involved and I wonder about his conditioning as he often takes shorter shifts than the rest of his linemates. Right now, he's more of a projection than a total package, but I think if he grows into his frame, gets a little confidence and works on his conditioning, he might be a guy in 2-3 years that comes a long way to be a steal. INTERESTING STAT: Averaged 0.67 PpG in September but never averaged more than 0.33 PpG in any other month.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Vancouver Canucks. A big, raw-boned project with excellent wheels and playmaking ability. He's a flyer, but I hope somebody nabs him in the seventh round.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Vancouver Cacnucks, while scouting Virtanen, they must have seen a lot of Pollock. Should go fairly high in the second round.
02. Thomas, Ben, D [6'02, 193] Calgary, WHL (72•7•24•31•11•39): Physical two-way defenceman has a nice frame. Good zone exits and footspeed and has a beautiful hard point shot that he consistently gets on net. A really smooth point presence on the power-play but sometimes makes poor decisions on when to jump in on a rush. Plays a physical game in his own zone but has a tendency to get a little scrambly back there and can be pressured into turnovers. Has to watch his temper and he took some costly retaliatory penalties in the playoffs. INTERESTING STAT: His best month for points was in October when he put up 8 and averaged 0.57 points-per-game. He never averaged higher than 0.50 in any other month (Save the 2 games in September). Was a +17 through December and January.
Feels Like A Fit For: Tampa Bay. He could be the anchor to free-wheeling Anthony DeAngelo drafted today. He could slip into the third round.
03. Kirkland, Justin, LW [6'03, 189] Kelowna, WHL (68•17•31•48•23•40): Great, disruptive net-front presence and loves to battle defenders and play physical, and usually comes out a winner. Uses his big frame to shield the puck well and is a good stickhandler, though he can be dispossessed of the puck rather easily sometimes. Was used a lot on the penalty kill in the second half of the season. Is a really smart forward who likes to go to the net and is sneaky-quick with a strong stride for someone his size. Has an excellent wristshot that can pick the top corners with ease. Staring to become a force on the cycle and along the boards. INTERESTING STAT: Never posted a negative Plus/Minus rating in any months of the season. Also, his point-per-game totals went up every successive month from December through to March.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Boston Bruins. An honest hard-working big forward, sounds like a Bruin. Should go high in the second round, though he might slip in the latter half of the round.
04. Schoenborn, Alex, RW [6'01, 194] Portland, WHL (72•18•18•36•19•121): Power Forward in training is mean and chippy, always ticked off, and creates mayhem in front of the net. Solid skater with good acceleration. He's not a natural puckhandler, and doesn't always handle passes clean, but has a solid shot and is a decent playmaker. He sometimes succeeds on will, rather than skill. A relenteless forechecker, he and linemates Dominic Turgeon and Keegan Iverson were used in the playoffs to forecheck, cycle and grind out the puck and would repeatedly draw opposing penalties. Is used on the penalty-kill and even-strength but rarely on the power-play. INTERESTING STAT: If you subtracted his January totals, his points-per-game would raise one an 0.1 from 0.50 to 0.60 (He only had 1 goal in 14 games in January). He only failed to post double-digit penalty minute totals in September, when he had 6 in 4 games.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Pittsburgh Penguins. New coach Mike Johnston coached him in junior, used him a lot and would likely vouch for his toughness and character. Might slip into the third round.
05. Hawryluk, Jayce, C [5'10, 190] Brandon, WHL (59•24•40•64•16•44): Quick forward who never stops working. Despite his frame, wins most puck battles and plays physical. Is a speedy skater with quick hands, good puckhandling and an excellent wrist-shot. Makes things happen on the ice. Is also an excellent playmaker. Worrisome incident in the playoffs where he collapsed post-game and was rushed to hospital, but returned to play the next game and whatever it was seems to be a non-issue. INTRESTING STAT: Averaged just 0.73 points-per-game September/October but only failed to crack 1.20 points-per-game one other month in the season (January when he posted 0.67).
Feels Like A Fit For: The New Jersey Devils. The Devils took his teammate Quenneville in the first round, I'd imagine they were impressed with Hawryluk's sparkplug style. Should go high in the second round.
06. Turgeon, Dominic C [6'02, 196] Portland, WHL (65•10•21•31•18•31) : Son of NHL star Pierre Turgeon is a defensively responsible forward who needs to get stronger but is incredibly reliable. Game has grown steadily, albeit maybe less quickly than many expected. Is a solid playmaker who is only starting to recognize how his frame allows him to protect the puck from defencemen. Also played increasingly physical as the year went on and added a real edge to his game. Displays flashes of brilliance with beautiful dekes, stickhandling and power-moves to the net that create chances and goals but sometimes tries to force the pass when it isn't there. Valuable penalty-killer who seemed to get more ice-time as the season wore on. With Portland likely graduating 4-5 players to the pro ranks next year, I'm betting his numbers will see a quick spike with more, better playing time. INTERESTING STAT: Point-per-game averages were between 0.25 to 0.56 per month all season long, except for February when he had 12 points in 12 games.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Buffalo Sabres. His father Pierre was a great player there and Turgeon could be a great 2-way center lined up with either of the Isles first rounders: Michael Dal Colle and Josh Ho-Sang. Should be a mid-to-late second rounder.
07. Fazleev, Radel LW [6'00, 178] Calgary, WHL (38•5•20•25•1•12): Intelligent, two-way forward is very aggressive defensively, though sometimes a little too casual handling puck in own zone, but is still a trusted and useful penalty-killer. Offensively, he's pass-first and loves to set up his linemates from behind the net for one-timers but can be a tad impatient with the puck on his stick. Carries the puck well, losing defenders by changing his speeds and is a good stickhandler Not a great shooter, but plays the point on the power play which is useful for his puck distribution. Doesn't mind the rough stuff, but is occasionally undisciplined and takes bad retaliatory penalties. Missed the last three months of the season with an injury but came back for the playoffs. INTERESTING STAT: Would have finished the season in 18th had he not been injured and maintained his 0.66 point-per-game average, his injuries saw him finish 44th.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Tampa Bay Lightning. Steve Yzerman loves to pick Russians and loves to pick WHLers. I'd imagine he goes in the third round.
08. Point, Brayden, C [5'09, 160] Moose Jaw, WHL (72•36•55•91•-27•53): Supremely quick, he loses defenders with his speed and quick moves, or else meets them and spins off of them with the puck still on his stick. Has tons of confidence which he puts on display when he skates the puck effortlessly out of his own end and is surprisingly strong on the puck for his size. Puck seems to follow him in the offensive zone and he is a tireless forechecker who is adept at stealing the puck off his opponents' sticks. Very smart player who anticipates where rebounds will end up and gets to them first. He also uses these smarts to go into high-traffic areas and somehow emerge with the puck despite his size. Great passer who also possesses a big slap shot. INTERESTING STAT: Averaged an incredible 1.75 points-per-game in 2014. If he had maintained that pace all season, he would have led WHL draft eligibles in scoring by more than 20 points with 126. Also, despite his points, he only posted a positive +/- rating in February with +3.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Tampa Bay Lightning. Yzerman likes to go to the WHL and has no fear of undersized forwards.
09. Iverson, Keegan C [6'00, 216] Portland, WHL (67•22•20•42•16•70): Solid, physical player who is tough to stop when he drives to the net. Skating stride is a little choppy. Big hitter who generates chances off of the cycle and along the boards. Is man-strong already and opposing defenders have a terrible time controlling him as he keeps his feet moving in the offensive zone. Has a solid shot and makes some solid passes but doesn't have a lot of offensive creativity, often just throws the puck into the slot and hopes for the best. Has a defensive conscience and always comes back to help out. INTERESTING STAT: In months where he played 8 games (October and March, he averaged 0.88 points-per-game. He only cracked the 0.8 threshold one other time in the season.
Feels Like A Fit For: Nashville. Nashville likes drafting out of the WHL and former teammate/current Pred Seth Jones would likely go to bat for his competitiveness. Should go early in the second round.
10. De Leo, Chase C [5'10, 175] Portland, WHL (72•39•42•81•49•36): Really fast and incredibly shifty with a quick, accurate one-timer. Unbelievably evasive and has a nice spin move to roll off defenders. Wins battles he has no business winning along boards and out front by using his smarts Could stand to be more patient with the puck, sometimes just throws it in the middle when nothing else is available. Excellent vision and playmaking. That said, when the game gets tough, I don't notice him as much, he seems to disappear into the background until power-play comes up. INTERESTING STAT: Was a staggering +27 over the months of February and March.
Feels Like A Fit For: Pittsburgh, again the Mike Johnston connection, he'll know that De Leo's lack of size won't be an issue due to his hard-working nature. Might slip into the 3rd round.
11. Philp, Luke, C [5'10, 177] Kootenay, WHL (71•31•46•77•2•31): Smooth and smart forward who loves to go to the net and doesn't lack confidence. Really effective playing the point on the power-play with a heavy accurate slapshot and has a really nasty, tricky fake shot that he uses to get defenders off-balance. Isn't a great defender. Isn't a big guy but has some grit and even drops the gloves on occasion. Benefited a lot from Sam Reinhart, but often gave as good as he got with some really smart, clever passing. Is able to put separation between him and defenders with his skating and has a knack for getting to open spaces. Just a genuinely smart player with terrific hands. Whoever takes Reinhart would be smart to gamble on Philp as early as the second round. INTERESTING STAT: Finished the season 6th for goals scored, 6th for points scored and 6th for points-per-game.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Buffalo Sabres. He has great chemistry with Sam Reinhart, why not bank on that? Might be an early third rounder, but I wouldn't be shocked if he didn't drop very late.
12. Chartier, Rourke, C [5'11, 180] Kelowna, WHL (72•24•34•58•26•8): Had a terrible beginning to the season, but came alive in the second half. Excellent passer is quick and somehow able to shield the puck from defenders despite not being that big and is much stronger than you would expect and makes some power moves to the net An excellent stickhandler in traffic. A hard-wokring forward who never quits on a play and brings a ton of energy on every shift. Excellent in his own zone, was voted the 'Best Defensive Forward' on his team and is used a lot on the penalty kill. INTERESTING STAT: Went scorless in 10 games in October and only put up 5 points in 11 games in November, but after that his scoring was never at less than a point-per-game.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Phoenix Coyotes have drafted their fair share of WHLers and Kelowna Rockets. He should go in the third, maybe fourth round.
13. Irving, Aaron, D [6'01, 190] Edmonton, WHL (63•9•21•30•26•88): Was relied on heavily early in the season and looked like a breakout star, playing solid defence and jumping effortlessly into the rush which is the basis for his elevated ranking. Seemed to lose the confidence of his coach and his ice-time dropped majorly in the second-half of the season and played only sparingly in the playoffs. Has a nice proectable frame and the ability to jump into the play. Moves the puck well along the point and has a heavy accurate shot. Defensive game is rather inconsistent, looking like a shut-down defenceman one night and lost the next. With solid program in Edmonton, I think he'll figure it out in time. INTERESTING STAT: 27 of his 30 points came from September-December, a point-per-game ratio of 0.73 which was 0.25 higher than his season total.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton co-owns the team and has to have a pretty good handle on him. Could be a mid-to-late second rounder but I think he'll end up in the third or fourth round.
14. Mayo, Dysin, D [6'01. 180] Edmonton, WHL (63•7•28•35•17•50): Offensive defenceman who loves to jump into the play. Sometimes prone to overhandling the puck but has a solid shot that he usually succeeds in getting through. Needs to learn to recognize when less is more and not force a pass or shot. Can get panicky in own zone and pressured into making poor decisions. Not an overly physical player, but will stand up for self and teammates. INTERESTING STAT: Had just 6 points in his first 20 games (0.3 PpG) but had 29 in his last 43 (0.67 PpG).
Feels Like A Fit For: Ottawa. They likely kept tabs on Curtis Lazar this season and must have seen a lot of Mayo. Should go in the third round.
15. Bukarts, Rihards, LW [5'09, 189] Brandon, WHL (65•28•26•54•2•50): Loves to shoot the puck but is a decent passer who has a tendency to play a little too much one-on-one play on rushes. Then again, with stickhandling like his, he is often able to slice through the neutral-zone with precision. Is very quick to find open space, get there, and get open. Is very small and can be knocked off the puck but also displays a thrilling willingness to engage opponents with devastating bodychecks, gets into scrums and doesn't mind sacrificing his body to make a play. Father Ralf played professionally in Latvia, while brother Roberts plays in the KHL. INTERESTING STAT: Three times this season he was a Top 10 WHL draft eligible in goals.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Calgary Flames. He's small, skilled and European, but he's got grit and loves the open-ice hit, sounds like a Burke pick. Should go in the fifth round.
16. Baillie, Tyson, C [5'10, 187] Kelowna, WHL (56•22•33•55•19•53): Very intelligent and good on-ice awareness and staggering vision which contributes to his excellent passing. Stickhandles well in traffic, makes terrific plays at high speeds and has a terrific wrist-shot that he can get off mid-flight. Has a defensive conscience and a desire to play physical, but sometimes takes bad penalties. Sometimes tries to do too much and doesn't make decisions quick enough. Was really flying early in the season but play slowed down a little, then got injured and missed the bulk of the last two months of the season. INTERESTING STAT: Lead all WHL players in assists and points in December when he had 15 assists and 20 points in just 12 games.
Feels Like A Fit For: Detroit. They've drafted from Kelowna before and would recognize his smarts. Should go in the fourth or fifth round.
17. Nikolishin, Ivan, C [5'09, 160] Everett, WHL (72•18•41•59•-4•16): Shifty little forward has explosive straight-ahead speed but is supremely quick going side-to-side, as well. Is an offensive dynamo. Everett's power-play runs through him and he's dangerous: a great passer, a stinging wrist-shot and has unbelievable stickhandling in close quarters. Has a developed defensive conscience. Displays virtually no physical play whatsoever and his pro ceiling might eventually be that of a power-play specialist. Father Andre was a longtime NHL player. INTERESTING STAT: Was 7th amongst WHL draft eligible prospects in assist at the end of the season with 41, buoyed by his March in which he put up 9 assists in just 8 games.
Feels Like A Fit For: The LA Kings. They aren't afraid of drafting Russians, nor skill players. Should go somewhere in the fifth round.
18. Hicketts, Joe, D [5'08, 165] Victoria, WHL (36•6•18•24•25•12): Has great on-ice awareness and loves to jump into the play. Is a stabilizing presence on the point, has a huge point shot and makes excellent passes. Has a real knack for entering the zone safely, and at retrieving rebounds. s surprisingly physical, given his size and fearlessly steps into larger opponents or blocks shots. Fairly solid defensively with the occasional giveaway. Missed the better part of three months with an injury, then looked a little tentative on his return but rounded back into form come playoff time. INTERESTING STAT: His 9 penalty minutes during Victoria's 2nd round playoff series against Portland was more than Hicketts had in any single month of the regular season.
Feels Like A Fit For: Dallas isn't afraid of undersized d-men, Hicketts is a match. Should go in the sixth or seventh round.
19. Lang, Chase, RW [6'01, 182] Calgary, WHL (68•10•15•25•13•52): Solid frame that he uses to protect the puck well in the offensive zone and go into high-traffic areas. Trusted by coaching staff and was used to help defend some 5-on-3 penalty kills. Definition of pure will: Lang never stops working, will battle all shift long and is rarely beaten to loose pucks. Uses his speed as a real forechecking threat and forces turnovers galore. Very physical but has a tendency to take some bad penalties. Puck play improved as his season went on and displayed a nifty playmaking ability and an underrated shot. INTERESTING STAT: Had 1 point in his first 22 games, then 24 in his next 46. Penalty minute totals also took off in 2014, from 17 in the first half of the season, to 35 on the back half.
Feels Like A Fit For: Philadelphia. While scouting first rounder Travis Sanheim, I wouldn't be surprised if Lang turned some heads. His fiery, hard-working style is a fit for the Flyers. Should be a late-rounder.
20. Sleptsov, Alexei, D [6'00, 165] Moose Jaw, WHL (66•4•21•25•-20•44): Solid skater who makes a good first pass. Defensive play isn't his forte, but uses his skating to get him out of trouble. Confidence grew as season wore on and he got more daring, maybe even a little cavalier skating the puck out of his own zone. Solid power-play quarterback with a hard point shot. Smart player who is quick to jump on loose pucks. INTERESTING STAT: Had an almost perfect split of scoring stats with 12 points in his first half and 13 in the second, however his +/- was glaringly better in 2014 where he was only -6 while posting a -14 in the first four months of the year.
Feels Like A Fit For: Montreal. They took a skilled Russian playing in the WHL in the first round, why not a skilled Russian d-man late in the draft. Should be a seventh rounder.
21. Gutierrez, Justin, C [6'04, 185] Tri-City, WHL (70•3•18•21•-14•103): Big forward is still growing into his body, but has quick feet and gets up to good top speed. Acceleration needs some work, but it's just a little gangly right now. Has some great tools, like aformentioned speed, a huge reach that allow him to protect the puck from defenders and a really solid playmaking game. Sometimes looks like he doesn't want to get involved and I wonder about his conditioning as he often takes shorter shifts than the rest of his linemates. Right now, he's more of a projection than a total package, but I think if he grows into his frame, gets a little confidence and works on his conditioning, he might be a guy in 2-3 years that comes a long way to be a steal. INTERESTING STAT: Averaged 0.67 PpG in September but never averaged more than 0.33 PpG in any other month.
Feels Like A Fit For: The Vancouver Canucks. A big, raw-boned project with excellent wheels and playmaking ability. He's a flyer, but I hope somebody nabs him in the seventh round.
Happy Draft Day!
I'm not even going to try to call the draft today, or update the blog on the draft as there's no way I can hope to cover it in any meaningful ways when you've got Bob McKenzie and TSN doing such a terrific thorough job, but I thought I would post a single quote that I hope all media, scouts, hockey ops. and armchair drafters keep in mind when it comes to European players who played in the CHL this year.
And what Euro-lovin' commie made that quote? Why none other than the beacon of sweetness and light: Mr. Mike Keenan.
Enjoy the draft!
“You don’t even have to finish asking the question,” he said, cutting me off when I started inquiring about how he now thinks about the foreign players he coached decades ago. “Like, boy, are we ever arrogant. No appreciation for the young guys that come over. Here, we have an interpreter helping us. When we go to the grocery store, we’ve got someone to come around. We just throw those kids to the wolves and say, ‘See ya at practice tomorrow.’ They don’t even know what we’re saying.”(Taken from this excellent article)
And what Euro-lovin' commie made that quote? Why none other than the beacon of sweetness and light: Mr. Mike Keenan.
Enjoy the draft!
Wednesday, June 25, 2014
The 2014 OPCD Probability Draft
I tend to feel like mock drafts are mostly a waste of time, people (myself included in the past) spend all this time figuring out who teams are going to take only for one trade to scuttle the whole list. So, instead of a mock draft, I'm going to do a Probability Draft. After doing a quick study of what GMs tend to do at the draft table, where they draft from, what they do with first rounders, recent trends, I present to you.
For the sake of clarity, I've broken down the sources as so: OHL, WHL, QMJHL, USHL, US National Team Development Program (Admittedly, they have played in the USHL the last few years, but didn't for the full length of this study, so, for easiness' sake, they are listed separate, NCAA, Tier-2 (Comprising basically any North American junior league that doesn't fit in the other categories: the BCHL, OPJHL, CCHL, NAHL, etc. etc,). For European players, I've referred to them by country alone, as it's just, frankly, much easier. Also note, for the purposes of this study, a player's league is more important than his nationality. So, for instance, Mikkel Boedker is an OHLer, not a Dane; Nino Niedrreiter is a WHLer, not Swiss etc. etc.
THE 2014 NHL PROBABILITY DRAFT!
01. FLORIDA, DALE TALLON: No GM has chosen more players at the NHL draft since the lock-out than Dale Tallon. He has selected a whopping 79 players! Of those 79, 64 of them come from North America. Of his 11 first rounders over that time period, he has chosen a defenceman in the first round just 3 times. He shows no real preference for leagues, having chosen players from 9 different sources (Only WHL and OHL with 2 apiece had more than one player chosen). Overall, in drafting, Dale Tallon has gone to the OHL and Tier-2 junior leagues, a combined 30% of the time. There is no Tier-2 junior player ranked that high, therefore, with the first selection in the NHL draft, Florida chooses SAM BENNETT.
02. BUFFALO, TIM MURRAY: Tim Murray is one of six General Managers who are going into their first NHL draft. Therefore, we have no really accurate read on his drafting tendencies. That said, seeing as he was hired in 2007-2008 by Ottawa and worked closely with his uncle Bryan over that time period, it's likely that his drafting philosophy will, in some respects, mirror that of his father's (Which is useful for me, coincidentally, as I prepared an analysis of Murray's drafting only to remember, too late, that Ottawa doesn't have their first rounder this year!). Over the six years that Tim Murray was part of the Senators organization, the Senators had 7 first rounders. Of those seven first rounders, the Sens went to the OHL three times, WHL twice, and Sweden twice. They had a slight bias towards forwards (4 vs. 3) in the first round, but overall tend to take forwards over twice as often as defenceman. Given all these factors, with the second pick in the 2014 draft, the Buffalo Sabres select SAM REINHART.
03. EDMONTON, CRAIG MACTAVISH: There isn't a huge body of evidence to work from here, as MacTavish has only been at the helm of one draft as Edmonton GM. In that one draft, he chose 10 players, 3 of them coming from the WHL, 2 from the OHL, Tier-2 and Russia. His one first round pick, so far, came from the OHL and given who is available at this point, it's reasonable to suggest he does the same. With the third pick in the 2014 NHL draft, Edmonton selects AARON EKBLAD.
04. CALGARY, BRAD TRELIVING: Like Murray above, Treliving is entering his first draft as an NHL GM. Like Murray, Treliving had been a high-ranking member (Assistant General Manager) since 2008 with Phoenix, so like him we're going to project that Phoenix's drafting lined up with Treliving's philosophies on drafting. Over that period, Phoenix had eight first rounders and went to the OHL three times (Twice for a forward, once for a goalie). Phoenix only went outside North America twice in that period (And once for a Russian player who was mostly based out of California) and took forwards four times, defence three and a goalie once. Phoenix didn't show a particular preference for size over skill (Twice selecting slight skilled forwards (Max Domi and Mikkel Boedker) so with the fourth pick in the 2014 draft, Calgary selects MICHAEL DAL COLLE.
05. NY ISLANDERS, GARTH SNOW: Snow has chosen seven times in the first round in his 7 years on the job. He has never selected a first rounder outside of either the OHL or the WHL. He's picked three WHLers, one forward and two defenders, while going to the OHL four times, selecting two forwards and two defenders. Even though, when looking overall, the Islanders have gone to the OHL a whopping 14 times in 45 picks (A stunning 26% of the time), I'm going to go with recent trends and suggest that, since their last two picks have come from the WHL, and they are likely keeping a close eye on those prospects, that the Isles will return to the WHL and with the fifth pick in the 2014 draft, the NY Islanders select LEON DRAISAITL.
06. VANCOUVER, JIM BENNING: The third neophyte GM in the Top 6, Jim Benning has never helmed a draft, himself, before, but like the others, we will base his tendencies on that of his prior team, the Boston Bruins, where he was named Director of Player Personnel in 2006, but moved up to Assistant GM when Pete Chiarelli was hired. Throughout Chiarelli's tenure and, consequently, Benning's, the Bruins preferred forwards overwhelmingly, taking four of them with their six first rounders. The Bruins drafted three players out of the OHL, but one was a defenceman and the other a goalie. They also went to the WHL, QMJHL and Tier-2 once in that time span, but never once chose a first rounder from outside North America. The Bruins also had a habit of drafting large forwards over this time span, only Zach Hamill (who did not pan out) every other first rounder was over 6'1" in heigh. Given these factors, the Vancouver Canucks, with the sixth selection in the NHL draft, choose JAKE VIRTANEN.
07. CAROLINA, RON FRANCIS: And...a fourth GM in the Top 7 who has never made a selection before. Francis has been a member of the Hurricanes front office since 2006, so we'll just assume his philosophies dovetail with those of departed GM Jim Rutherford, and work from there. Carolina over Francis' tenure, had six first rounders, two of them coming from the OHL, two from the WHL and one each from Sweden and the QMJHL. Given their like of the OHL, the Carolina Hurricanes, with the seventh pick in the draft select NICK RITCHIE.
08. TORONTO, DAVE NONIS: Nonis has helmed four drafts since the lock-out, three with the Canucks (from 2005-2007) and one with the Leafs (the 2013 draft). In those four drafts, he had first rounder in each of them without any real prefences being shown, he chose a forward from the USHL, a forward from the WHL, a forward from the QMJHL and a defenceman from the QMJHL. With his Canuck selections, he showed an emphasis on skill over size, but chose a very big forward with Toronto's pick last summer. Overall, Nonis has shown a solid bias for North American players over European ones (15 from North America, just seven from Euope). That said, the Leafs have shown a predilection for Swedes outside the first round, taking six over their last four drafts. For that fact, the Toronto Maple Leafs, with the eight pick, choose WILLIAM NYLANDER.
09. WINNIPEG, KEVIN CHEVELDAYOFF: Cheveldayoff has been in charge of three Winnipeg drafts, so far. His three first rounders have never been outside of North America, with one each from the WHL, OHL and the US National Team Development Program. The Jets have only drafted 1 player from outside North America in 23 picks, so far and are heavy drafters of defenceman (Of 18 skaters drafted, 10 have been forwards with 8 defencemen). Another factor to look at, is Winnipeg's penchant for drafting from the WHL, 29% of their draftec players were based out of the WHL. Therefore, with the ninth selection in the NHL Draft, the Winnipeg Jets select HAYDN FLEURY.
10. ANAHEIM, BOB MURRAY: Murray has chosen seven first rounders over his five NHL drafts. Of his first five first rounders, 4 of them were forwards, but recently he's taken defencemen in the first round of the last two drafts. He's shown a preference to draft from the OHL, with 3 of those seven first rounders being out of the OHL. Overall, he tends to go overwhelmingly with OHLers and players from Sweden, with 37 of his picks drawing from those two talent pools. Given he has selected d-men with his last two picks and could probably use a forward, and his penchant for going to the OHL and reluctance to go to the QMJHL (No first rounders and just two players drafted total from the QMJHL in five years!), with the tenth pick of the 2014 draft, the Anaheim Ducks select BRENDAN PERLINI.
11. NASHVILLE, DAVID POILE: Poile has taken 7 players in the first round since the lock-out, with an even split of three forwards, three defencemen and one goalie. He has a penchant for drafting from the OHL, three of his seven picks have been out of the OHL and two out of the WHL, with a pick out of the NCAA being the lone non-OHL/WHLer. Poile has actually gone to Europe for 32 out of his 70 picks, but has never chosen a player out of Europe in his tenure, thus far. Poile sticks with the OHL here and with the 11th choice in the 2014 Draft, selects JARED MCANN.
12. PHOENIX, DON MALONEY: Maloney's demonstrated no real pattern to his picks over the years, spreading his 10 picks as Coyotes GM across the OHL (1F, 1D, 1G), WHL (1F, 1D), USNDTP (D), SWE (F), RUS (F), Tier-2 (F) and QMJHL (D). He's shown a real interest in picking highly-skilled forwards, regardless of size, like Max Domi and Mikkel Boedker, which makes him the perfect candidate to select, with the twelfth overall pick, NIKOLAJ EHLERS.
13. WASHINGTON, BRIAN MACLELLAN: MacLellan's first draft as the GM, we'll presume, likely won't be a massive change of direction from George McPhee's lengthy tenure, as MacLellan apprenticed under the former Capitals GM. Washington has had 12 first round picks since the lock-out, with 5 of them being Swedish forwards and two being Russians, a goalie and forward and two being from the USHL. Washington has also hit a variety of other leagues - OHL, WHL, NCAA - but never more than once. It would seem likely that Washington would be very interested in a Swedish forward with their pick, and I'm going to say they will go there, but for a Swiss forward, playing in Sweden, and select with the thirteenth pick KEVIN FIALA.
14. DALLAS, JIM NILL: Nill has only run one draft as Dallas' GM, last year, in which he selected 9 picks. One-third of those picks were OHL forwards and only two of them being defencemen, both from Europe (Finland and Sweden). Nill sticks with what he likes, OHL forwards, and with the fourteenth pick of the 2014 draft selects ROBBIE FABBRI.
15. DETROIT, KEN HOLLAND: Detroit has a reputation for drafting out of Sweden, and it's much deserved, 22% of their 64 draft picks since the lock-out have been from Sweden. Interestingly, though, of their five first rounders since the end of the lock-out, Detroit has never gone outside of North America once in the first round. With many of their prospects maturing and pushing for roster spots, along with a bunch more on the way, Detroit can afford to wait a little bit longer for a pick and two of their five first rounders have been from the American development system, and Detroit will go their instead making their pick the fast-rising ALEX TUCH
16. COLUMBUS, JARMO KEKALAINEN: Entering just his second draft with the Blue Jackets, Kekalainen has shown a desire to draft all over the place, taking two from the OHL, two from the WHL, two from Sweden and one each from the USHL, and Russia, and none from Finland after every mock draft figured Kekalainen, of Finnish heritage, would be drafting every Finn that came down the pike. Kekalainen will go back to the WHL here, and with the sixteenth pick, Columbus selects JULIUS HONKA.
17. PHILADELPHIA, RON HEXTALL: Hextall is a tough read, because he's come up through LA's system, but then was hired by Philadelphia for the past two years and promoted to GM this year, thus it's hard to indicate his tendencies in drafting. This is his first draft as GM, and there's one thing he's probably learned as with both organizations: size matters. With the seventeeth pick, the Philadelphia Flyers choose DYLAN LARKIN.
18. MINNESOTA, CHUCK FLETCHER: Fletcher's five first rounders as Minnesota GM have seen him hit up the WHL, QMJHL and US High Schools once each, but he's also shown a lack of fear in selecting a European in the first round, nabbing a player from Sweden and another from Finland. He's also fairly even in positional drafting, twice selecting forwards and choosing three defenders in the first round. Fletcher's not afraid to go back to Europe here, and selects KASPERI KAPANEN of Finland.
19. TAMPA BAY, STEVE YZERMAN: One think Steve Yzerman has demonstrated above all else in his four drafts in charge of the Tampa Bay Lightning is that he's unafraid of going to Russia, even as many GMs shy away from the country. In fact, in his last three drafts, Yzerman has drafted 5 players from out of the Russian leagues. There aren't any Russians ranked high enough here for Yzerman's liking, but there is a couple playing in North America. Given he's also shown an affinity for the QMJHL (Drafted 5 of his 28 players from there), with the nineteenth pick in the 2014 Draft, Tampa Bay selects IVAN BARBASHEV.
20. SAN JOE, DOUG WILSON: Wilson enters his 10th draft since the lock-out with maybe a different mindset this year as he's just stated that San Jose will be going through a bit of a rebuild. Of his six first-rounders, Wilson has hit up the WHL three different times. Here's betting he goes back there again and with the twentieth pick of the 2014 draft, selects TRAVIS SANHEIM.
21. ST. LOUIS, DOUG ARMSTRONG: This is Armstrong's sixth draft since the lock-out, but only his third with the Blues. During those six drafts, he's only had a first rounder three times and it wouldn't be a shock if he didn't have one come this Friday. Should he keep the pick, however, chances are it would be out of the US development system as two of his first rounders came from there, and 13 of his 40 picks were from said system. Armstrong goes back there, and with the twenty-first pick of the 2014 draft selects SONNY MILANO.
22. PITTSBURGH, JIM RUTHERFORD: A lot speculation that this pick might be moved by new GM Jim Rutherford, who is looking to add a roster player in return (Maybe Buffalo could be a match?). But, we're not trading picks here and acting on the assumption that Rutherford keeps his first rounder in his first draft as Pittsburgh's GM, Rutherford has previously shown an affinity for drafting out of the OHL, as 17 of his 58 picks were from the Ontario league. Given that the majority of the incoming prospects in Pittsburgh's system are defenders, coupled with the affinity for the OHL, Pittsburgh opts for skill and with the twenty-second pick of the first round selects JOSH HO-SANG.
23. COLORADO, GREG SHERMAN: There's some dispute over just how much control Sherman currently has over the Avalanche and the Colorado draft table with Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy also have roles in the team's hockey operations, but we're not here to argue that and we'll just assume Sherman has the final call and go off of the team's drafting history with him as GM. Throughout his run as Colorado GM, Sherman has chosen in the first round five times and three of those picks were out of the OHL. Colorado has drafted forwards twice as often as defencemen, but with their system crying out for a defender here, with the twenty-third pick of the 2014 draft, Colorado selects ROLAND MCKEOWN.
24. ANAHEIM, BOB MURRAY: We've covered Murray earlier and mentioned his penchant for Swedes which is why he goes there with the twenty-fourth pick, choosing the Czech player playing in Sweden, ADRIAN KEMPE.
25. BOSTON, PETE CHIARELLI: Since taking over as Bruins GM in 2007 (Technically he was hired in 2006 but was not allowed to act as GM WITH Boston until after the draft and beginning of free agency), over the last seven drafts, Pete Chiarelli has had a first rounder 6 out of 7 times and has chosen that first rounder every time from North America. Over the last stretch Boston has loved the OHL, going there for its last three first rounders (In addition to 5 other OHL players selected during that time) and GM Pete Chiarelli likes bloodlines (Malcolm Subban, Jim Benning, Ryan Fitzgerald, Jamie Arniel, and Lane MacDermid), so Boston goes with both, so for the twenty-fifth pick of the 2014 draft, Boston selects BRENDAN LEMIEUX.
26. MONTREAL, MARC BERGEVIN: This will be Marc Bergevin's third draft as GM of Montreal which is weird, to me, as it feels like he was just hired recently. While it's still too early to form a solid feeling on what type of players Bergevin trends towards, there are some hints. For one, he really likes players out of the QMJHL, going there for one-third of the Canadiens picks during his tenure (5 altogether) but he's also never drafted a QMJHL player in the first round. He's also been unafraid of going to Europe for picks (4) but, again, has never taken one in the first round. His last two picks have been forwards, one from the OHL and one from the USNDTP, which I think will have him thinking defence this time around, Montreal has a penchant for hitting the US developmental system, so their choice will be, with the twenty-sixth pick of the NHL Draft, JACK DOUHGERTY.
27. CHICAGO, STAN BOWMAN: This will be Bowman's fifth draft as Chicago GM and he's established a fair number of patterns. For one, he's not afraid to go to Europe, but he's 7 of the 10 players he's picked out of Europe have come from Sweden. He's also a big fan of the OHL and USNDTP with 5 choices each coming from those leagues, but interestingly enough all five of the OHLers are forwards. In the first round, every time, with all five first rounders, Bowman has gone with a forward. Here's to betting that trend continues and with the twenty-seventh pick in the 2014 draft, Chicago selects NICK SCHMALTZ.
28. TAMPA BAY, STEVE YZERMAN: In his four previous drafts, Yzerman has drafted 3 players from the WHL, I think he follows that trend and with the twenty-eight pick in the 2014 NHL Draft, Tampa Bay selects CONNOR BLEACKLEY.
29. LOS ANGELES, DEAN LOMBARDI: Lombradi has gone to the CHL for 38 of his 62 draft picks as Kings GM, with the OHL (18) and WHL (12) his most frequent targets. His first rounders seem to come overwhelmingly from the WHL with three of his eight first rounders coming from there. With that in mind, and the fact the he drafts forwards at a 2:1 ratio overall, with the twenty-ninth pick of the 2014 Draft, the LA Kings select NIKITA SCHERBAK.
30. NEW JERSEY, LOU LAMIORELLO: One league stands alone when it comes to Devils GM Lou Lamiorello, and it's the OHL. He has drafted out of the OHL with 5 more picks than the next closest source for a grand total of 13 picks. Oddly, only once has he drafted a first round pick out of the OHL, despite those totals, but he has taken 4 players from Sweden in the first round. And, to an extent, every one of those picks from Sweden has been a bit of a disappointment, thus far. So, Lamiorello, with a pick he wasn't supposed to have, goes back to his comfort zone of the OHL and takes a swing for the fences with a talented player with attitude issues and with the thirtieth pick of the 2014 NHL Draft, New Jersey selects ANTHONY DEANGELO.
For the sake of clarity, I've broken down the sources as so: OHL, WHL, QMJHL, USHL, US National Team Development Program (Admittedly, they have played in the USHL the last few years, but didn't for the full length of this study, so, for easiness' sake, they are listed separate, NCAA, Tier-2 (Comprising basically any North American junior league that doesn't fit in the other categories: the BCHL, OPJHL, CCHL, NAHL, etc. etc,). For European players, I've referred to them by country alone, as it's just, frankly, much easier. Also note, for the purposes of this study, a player's league is more important than his nationality. So, for instance, Mikkel Boedker is an OHLer, not a Dane; Nino Niedrreiter is a WHLer, not Swiss etc. etc.
THE 2014 NHL PROBABILITY DRAFT!
01. FLORIDA, DALE TALLON: No GM has chosen more players at the NHL draft since the lock-out than Dale Tallon. He has selected a whopping 79 players! Of those 79, 64 of them come from North America. Of his 11 first rounders over that time period, he has chosen a defenceman in the first round just 3 times. He shows no real preference for leagues, having chosen players from 9 different sources (Only WHL and OHL with 2 apiece had more than one player chosen). Overall, in drafting, Dale Tallon has gone to the OHL and Tier-2 junior leagues, a combined 30% of the time. There is no Tier-2 junior player ranked that high, therefore, with the first selection in the NHL draft, Florida chooses SAM BENNETT.
02. BUFFALO, TIM MURRAY: Tim Murray is one of six General Managers who are going into their first NHL draft. Therefore, we have no really accurate read on his drafting tendencies. That said, seeing as he was hired in 2007-2008 by Ottawa and worked closely with his uncle Bryan over that time period, it's likely that his drafting philosophy will, in some respects, mirror that of his father's (Which is useful for me, coincidentally, as I prepared an analysis of Murray's drafting only to remember, too late, that Ottawa doesn't have their first rounder this year!). Over the six years that Tim Murray was part of the Senators organization, the Senators had 7 first rounders. Of those seven first rounders, the Sens went to the OHL three times, WHL twice, and Sweden twice. They had a slight bias towards forwards (4 vs. 3) in the first round, but overall tend to take forwards over twice as often as defenceman. Given all these factors, with the second pick in the 2014 draft, the Buffalo Sabres select SAM REINHART.
03. EDMONTON, CRAIG MACTAVISH: There isn't a huge body of evidence to work from here, as MacTavish has only been at the helm of one draft as Edmonton GM. In that one draft, he chose 10 players, 3 of them coming from the WHL, 2 from the OHL, Tier-2 and Russia. His one first round pick, so far, came from the OHL and given who is available at this point, it's reasonable to suggest he does the same. With the third pick in the 2014 NHL draft, Edmonton selects AARON EKBLAD.
04. CALGARY, BRAD TRELIVING: Like Murray above, Treliving is entering his first draft as an NHL GM. Like Murray, Treliving had been a high-ranking member (Assistant General Manager) since 2008 with Phoenix, so like him we're going to project that Phoenix's drafting lined up with Treliving's philosophies on drafting. Over that period, Phoenix had eight first rounders and went to the OHL three times (Twice for a forward, once for a goalie). Phoenix only went outside North America twice in that period (And once for a Russian player who was mostly based out of California) and took forwards four times, defence three and a goalie once. Phoenix didn't show a particular preference for size over skill (Twice selecting slight skilled forwards (Max Domi and Mikkel Boedker) so with the fourth pick in the 2014 draft, Calgary selects MICHAEL DAL COLLE.
05. NY ISLANDERS, GARTH SNOW: Snow has chosen seven times in the first round in his 7 years on the job. He has never selected a first rounder outside of either the OHL or the WHL. He's picked three WHLers, one forward and two defenders, while going to the OHL four times, selecting two forwards and two defenders. Even though, when looking overall, the Islanders have gone to the OHL a whopping 14 times in 45 picks (A stunning 26% of the time), I'm going to go with recent trends and suggest that, since their last two picks have come from the WHL, and they are likely keeping a close eye on those prospects, that the Isles will return to the WHL and with the fifth pick in the 2014 draft, the NY Islanders select LEON DRAISAITL.
06. VANCOUVER, JIM BENNING: The third neophyte GM in the Top 6, Jim Benning has never helmed a draft, himself, before, but like the others, we will base his tendencies on that of his prior team, the Boston Bruins, where he was named Director of Player Personnel in 2006, but moved up to Assistant GM when Pete Chiarelli was hired. Throughout Chiarelli's tenure and, consequently, Benning's, the Bruins preferred forwards overwhelmingly, taking four of them with their six first rounders. The Bruins drafted three players out of the OHL, but one was a defenceman and the other a goalie. They also went to the WHL, QMJHL and Tier-2 once in that time span, but never once chose a first rounder from outside North America. The Bruins also had a habit of drafting large forwards over this time span, only Zach Hamill (who did not pan out) every other first rounder was over 6'1" in heigh. Given these factors, the Vancouver Canucks, with the sixth selection in the NHL draft, choose JAKE VIRTANEN.
07. CAROLINA, RON FRANCIS: And...a fourth GM in the Top 7 who has never made a selection before. Francis has been a member of the Hurricanes front office since 2006, so we'll just assume his philosophies dovetail with those of departed GM Jim Rutherford, and work from there. Carolina over Francis' tenure, had six first rounders, two of them coming from the OHL, two from the WHL and one each from Sweden and the QMJHL. Given their like of the OHL, the Carolina Hurricanes, with the seventh pick in the draft select NICK RITCHIE.
08. TORONTO, DAVE NONIS: Nonis has helmed four drafts since the lock-out, three with the Canucks (from 2005-2007) and one with the Leafs (the 2013 draft). In those four drafts, he had first rounder in each of them without any real prefences being shown, he chose a forward from the USHL, a forward from the WHL, a forward from the QMJHL and a defenceman from the QMJHL. With his Canuck selections, he showed an emphasis on skill over size, but chose a very big forward with Toronto's pick last summer. Overall, Nonis has shown a solid bias for North American players over European ones (15 from North America, just seven from Euope). That said, the Leafs have shown a predilection for Swedes outside the first round, taking six over their last four drafts. For that fact, the Toronto Maple Leafs, with the eight pick, choose WILLIAM NYLANDER.
09. WINNIPEG, KEVIN CHEVELDAYOFF: Cheveldayoff has been in charge of three Winnipeg drafts, so far. His three first rounders have never been outside of North America, with one each from the WHL, OHL and the US National Team Development Program. The Jets have only drafted 1 player from outside North America in 23 picks, so far and are heavy drafters of defenceman (Of 18 skaters drafted, 10 have been forwards with 8 defencemen). Another factor to look at, is Winnipeg's penchant for drafting from the WHL, 29% of their draftec players were based out of the WHL. Therefore, with the ninth selection in the NHL Draft, the Winnipeg Jets select HAYDN FLEURY.
10. ANAHEIM, BOB MURRAY: Murray has chosen seven first rounders over his five NHL drafts. Of his first five first rounders, 4 of them were forwards, but recently he's taken defencemen in the first round of the last two drafts. He's shown a preference to draft from the OHL, with 3 of those seven first rounders being out of the OHL. Overall, he tends to go overwhelmingly with OHLers and players from Sweden, with 37 of his picks drawing from those two talent pools. Given he has selected d-men with his last two picks and could probably use a forward, and his penchant for going to the OHL and reluctance to go to the QMJHL (No first rounders and just two players drafted total from the QMJHL in five years!), with the tenth pick of the 2014 draft, the Anaheim Ducks select BRENDAN PERLINI.
11. NASHVILLE, DAVID POILE: Poile has taken 7 players in the first round since the lock-out, with an even split of three forwards, three defencemen and one goalie. He has a penchant for drafting from the OHL, three of his seven picks have been out of the OHL and two out of the WHL, with a pick out of the NCAA being the lone non-OHL/WHLer. Poile has actually gone to Europe for 32 out of his 70 picks, but has never chosen a player out of Europe in his tenure, thus far. Poile sticks with the OHL here and with the 11th choice in the 2014 Draft, selects JARED MCANN.
12. PHOENIX, DON MALONEY: Maloney's demonstrated no real pattern to his picks over the years, spreading his 10 picks as Coyotes GM across the OHL (1F, 1D, 1G), WHL (1F, 1D), USNDTP (D), SWE (F), RUS (F), Tier-2 (F) and QMJHL (D). He's shown a real interest in picking highly-skilled forwards, regardless of size, like Max Domi and Mikkel Boedker, which makes him the perfect candidate to select, with the twelfth overall pick, NIKOLAJ EHLERS.
13. WASHINGTON, BRIAN MACLELLAN: MacLellan's first draft as the GM, we'll presume, likely won't be a massive change of direction from George McPhee's lengthy tenure, as MacLellan apprenticed under the former Capitals GM. Washington has had 12 first round picks since the lock-out, with 5 of them being Swedish forwards and two being Russians, a goalie and forward and two being from the USHL. Washington has also hit a variety of other leagues - OHL, WHL, NCAA - but never more than once. It would seem likely that Washington would be very interested in a Swedish forward with their pick, and I'm going to say they will go there, but for a Swiss forward, playing in Sweden, and select with the thirteenth pick KEVIN FIALA.
14. DALLAS, JIM NILL: Nill has only run one draft as Dallas' GM, last year, in which he selected 9 picks. One-third of those picks were OHL forwards and only two of them being defencemen, both from Europe (Finland and Sweden). Nill sticks with what he likes, OHL forwards, and with the fourteenth pick of the 2014 draft selects ROBBIE FABBRI.
15. DETROIT, KEN HOLLAND: Detroit has a reputation for drafting out of Sweden, and it's much deserved, 22% of their 64 draft picks since the lock-out have been from Sweden. Interestingly, though, of their five first rounders since the end of the lock-out, Detroit has never gone outside of North America once in the first round. With many of their prospects maturing and pushing for roster spots, along with a bunch more on the way, Detroit can afford to wait a little bit longer for a pick and two of their five first rounders have been from the American development system, and Detroit will go their instead making their pick the fast-rising ALEX TUCH
16. COLUMBUS, JARMO KEKALAINEN: Entering just his second draft with the Blue Jackets, Kekalainen has shown a desire to draft all over the place, taking two from the OHL, two from the WHL, two from Sweden and one each from the USHL, and Russia, and none from Finland after every mock draft figured Kekalainen, of Finnish heritage, would be drafting every Finn that came down the pike. Kekalainen will go back to the WHL here, and with the sixteenth pick, Columbus selects JULIUS HONKA.
17. PHILADELPHIA, RON HEXTALL: Hextall is a tough read, because he's come up through LA's system, but then was hired by Philadelphia for the past two years and promoted to GM this year, thus it's hard to indicate his tendencies in drafting. This is his first draft as GM, and there's one thing he's probably learned as with both organizations: size matters. With the seventeeth pick, the Philadelphia Flyers choose DYLAN LARKIN.
18. MINNESOTA, CHUCK FLETCHER: Fletcher's five first rounders as Minnesota GM have seen him hit up the WHL, QMJHL and US High Schools once each, but he's also shown a lack of fear in selecting a European in the first round, nabbing a player from Sweden and another from Finland. He's also fairly even in positional drafting, twice selecting forwards and choosing three defenders in the first round. Fletcher's not afraid to go back to Europe here, and selects KASPERI KAPANEN of Finland.
19. TAMPA BAY, STEVE YZERMAN: One think Steve Yzerman has demonstrated above all else in his four drafts in charge of the Tampa Bay Lightning is that he's unafraid of going to Russia, even as many GMs shy away from the country. In fact, in his last three drafts, Yzerman has drafted 5 players from out of the Russian leagues. There aren't any Russians ranked high enough here for Yzerman's liking, but there is a couple playing in North America. Given he's also shown an affinity for the QMJHL (Drafted 5 of his 28 players from there), with the nineteenth pick in the 2014 Draft, Tampa Bay selects IVAN BARBASHEV.
20. SAN JOE, DOUG WILSON: Wilson enters his 10th draft since the lock-out with maybe a different mindset this year as he's just stated that San Jose will be going through a bit of a rebuild. Of his six first-rounders, Wilson has hit up the WHL three different times. Here's betting he goes back there again and with the twentieth pick of the 2014 draft, selects TRAVIS SANHEIM.
21. ST. LOUIS, DOUG ARMSTRONG: This is Armstrong's sixth draft since the lock-out, but only his third with the Blues. During those six drafts, he's only had a first rounder three times and it wouldn't be a shock if he didn't have one come this Friday. Should he keep the pick, however, chances are it would be out of the US development system as two of his first rounders came from there, and 13 of his 40 picks were from said system. Armstrong goes back there, and with the twenty-first pick of the 2014 draft selects SONNY MILANO.
22. PITTSBURGH, JIM RUTHERFORD: A lot speculation that this pick might be moved by new GM Jim Rutherford, who is looking to add a roster player in return (Maybe Buffalo could be a match?). But, we're not trading picks here and acting on the assumption that Rutherford keeps his first rounder in his first draft as Pittsburgh's GM, Rutherford has previously shown an affinity for drafting out of the OHL, as 17 of his 58 picks were from the Ontario league. Given that the majority of the incoming prospects in Pittsburgh's system are defenders, coupled with the affinity for the OHL, Pittsburgh opts for skill and with the twenty-second pick of the first round selects JOSH HO-SANG.
23. COLORADO, GREG SHERMAN: There's some dispute over just how much control Sherman currently has over the Avalanche and the Colorado draft table with Joe Sakic and Patrick Roy also have roles in the team's hockey operations, but we're not here to argue that and we'll just assume Sherman has the final call and go off of the team's drafting history with him as GM. Throughout his run as Colorado GM, Sherman has chosen in the first round five times and three of those picks were out of the OHL. Colorado has drafted forwards twice as often as defencemen, but with their system crying out for a defender here, with the twenty-third pick of the 2014 draft, Colorado selects ROLAND MCKEOWN.
24. ANAHEIM, BOB MURRAY: We've covered Murray earlier and mentioned his penchant for Swedes which is why he goes there with the twenty-fourth pick, choosing the Czech player playing in Sweden, ADRIAN KEMPE.
25. BOSTON, PETE CHIARELLI: Since taking over as Bruins GM in 2007 (Technically he was hired in 2006 but was not allowed to act as GM WITH Boston until after the draft and beginning of free agency), over the last seven drafts, Pete Chiarelli has had a first rounder 6 out of 7 times and has chosen that first rounder every time from North America. Over the last stretch Boston has loved the OHL, going there for its last three first rounders (In addition to 5 other OHL players selected during that time) and GM Pete Chiarelli likes bloodlines (Malcolm Subban, Jim Benning, Ryan Fitzgerald, Jamie Arniel, and Lane MacDermid), so Boston goes with both, so for the twenty-fifth pick of the 2014 draft, Boston selects BRENDAN LEMIEUX.
26. MONTREAL, MARC BERGEVIN: This will be Marc Bergevin's third draft as GM of Montreal which is weird, to me, as it feels like he was just hired recently. While it's still too early to form a solid feeling on what type of players Bergevin trends towards, there are some hints. For one, he really likes players out of the QMJHL, going there for one-third of the Canadiens picks during his tenure (5 altogether) but he's also never drafted a QMJHL player in the first round. He's also been unafraid of going to Europe for picks (4) but, again, has never taken one in the first round. His last two picks have been forwards, one from the OHL and one from the USNDTP, which I think will have him thinking defence this time around, Montreal has a penchant for hitting the US developmental system, so their choice will be, with the twenty-sixth pick of the NHL Draft, JACK DOUHGERTY.
27. CHICAGO, STAN BOWMAN: This will be Bowman's fifth draft as Chicago GM and he's established a fair number of patterns. For one, he's not afraid to go to Europe, but he's 7 of the 10 players he's picked out of Europe have come from Sweden. He's also a big fan of the OHL and USNDTP with 5 choices each coming from those leagues, but interestingly enough all five of the OHLers are forwards. In the first round, every time, with all five first rounders, Bowman has gone with a forward. Here's to betting that trend continues and with the twenty-seventh pick in the 2014 draft, Chicago selects NICK SCHMALTZ.
28. TAMPA BAY, STEVE YZERMAN: In his four previous drafts, Yzerman has drafted 3 players from the WHL, I think he follows that trend and with the twenty-eight pick in the 2014 NHL Draft, Tampa Bay selects CONNOR BLEACKLEY.
29. LOS ANGELES, DEAN LOMBARDI: Lombradi has gone to the CHL for 38 of his 62 draft picks as Kings GM, with the OHL (18) and WHL (12) his most frequent targets. His first rounders seem to come overwhelmingly from the WHL with three of his eight first rounders coming from there. With that in mind, and the fact the he drafts forwards at a 2:1 ratio overall, with the twenty-ninth pick of the 2014 Draft, the LA Kings select NIKITA SCHERBAK.
30. NEW JERSEY, LOU LAMIORELLO: One league stands alone when it comes to Devils GM Lou Lamiorello, and it's the OHL. He has drafted out of the OHL with 5 more picks than the next closest source for a grand total of 13 picks. Oddly, only once has he drafted a first round pick out of the OHL, despite those totals, but he has taken 4 players from Sweden in the first round. And, to an extent, every one of those picks from Sweden has been a bit of a disappointment, thus far. So, Lamiorello, with a pick he wasn't supposed to have, goes back to his comfort zone of the OHL and takes a swing for the fences with a talented player with attitude issues and with the thirtieth pick of the 2014 NHL Draft, New Jersey selects ANTHONY DEANGELO.
Tuesday, June 17, 2014
Mining Gems Outside the First Round, Who's the Worst GM?
For details on how I went about determining these numbers see the last post
THE WORST GMS
01. DALE TALLON, Chicago (5 Drafts, 11%, 38 Picks, 4 Gems): Though Tallon's found more Gems than most of the GMs this high on the list (4), I'm putting him at #1 because of the massive amount of picks he had (38!) which is at least 4 more than any other GM over this time period. Plus, those first four drafts Tallon oversaw were all high, high draft picks (7th, 3rd, 1st and 11th). WORST DRAFT: He had a few, but 2006 stands as the worst. Eight draft picks, including two 2nds, 1 3rd and two 4ths and the only one outside of first rounder Jonathan Toews to make it into the NHL was 7th rounder Peter LeBlanc who played 1 game for Washington this past season. Just doing a quick bit of revisionist history, here, but Tallon could have come out of the 2006 draft with Jonathan Toews, Milan Lucic, Brad Marchand, Tom Sestito, James Reimer, Matt Beleseky, Andrew MacDonald, Mathieu Perreault and Derek Dorsett instead of, you know, Jonthan Toews and Peter LeBlanc. Just saying... WORST PICK: It's pretty apparent that whoever scouted Simon Danis-Papin saw his size listing and thought "Yup, that's our guy", because the fact of teh matter is that Danis-Papin not only flopped as an NHL prospect but has also not got the ability to be an AHL player as he only managed to get into 75 AHL games in the 5 years he's played professional hockey.
02. PETE CHIARELI, Boston (3 Drafts, 0%, 14 Picks, 0 Gems): I don't think there are too many Bruins fans who would like to see Chiarelli dismissed, based on the Bruins Cup win in 2011, as well as Cup appearance in 2013. But Chiarelli has not drafted well, at all, since taking over as Bruins GM. In fact, what's particularly striking about his failure (Besides the fact that he turned up 0 Gems in 3 drafts! The only other GMs to not turn up a Gem were Mike Milbury and Mike Keenan who only oversaw 3 drafts between them!) is that Chiarelli's two predecessors: Mike O'Connell and interim-GM Jeff Gorton, both actually had solid drafts in this time frame. In 2005, O'Connell found Vladimir Sobotka in the 4th round and he's gone on to play 381 NHL games (3 other O'Connell non-first rounders also saw limited NHL time). Meanwhile, Gorton turned in one of the finer 1 draft performances in 2006, landing the Bruins 485 GP power forward Milan Lucic late in the 2nd round in and picking up 300 GP pest Brad Marchand in the 3rd. Both were key players in the Bruins two Cup appearances. WORST DRAFT: Take your pick. Was it Chiarelli's first draft in 2007 where he failed to turn up a Gem in 5 non-first round picks? Was it the 2008 draft where 5 non-first rounders yielded 3 NHL players, though just 5 games played (Though Michael Hutchinson is having a wonderful AHL playoff run right now...with Winnipeg)? Or was it the 2009 draft where 4 picks yielded 1 NHL player, Lane MacDermid who played 21 NHL games before deciding to retire after a midseason demotion by Calgary. It's probably 2007. It's not just that the players failed to make the NHL, it's the fact they failed to come close, really. Tommy Cross is still a prospect in the AHL for the Bruins, but Denis Reul, Alain Goulet and Radim Ostrcil never even signed NHL deals while Jordan Knackstedt hung around the AHL for a while before ending up in Italy, Sweden and finally back in North America for Bakersfield of the ECHL this past season. WORST PICK: Maxime Sauve was a 47th overall 2nd rounder who has only played 1 NHL game and is currently on an AHL deal. The fact his pick came just 6 slots before Derek Stepan probably cements it. Tommy Cross merits a mention as this was the first year he able to cement himself as a regular AHL player and he was a high 2nd rounder (35th overall) who came just 8 picks before Norris Trophy winner P.K. Subban.
03. DON WADDELL, Atlanta (5 Drafts, 10%, 31 Picks, 3 Gems): Boy, was Waddell's run with Atlanta fairly disappointing on all fronts. In all his drafts over this period, he had exactly one pick outside the first round turn into an NHL player and that's Ondrej Pavelec (41st overall in 2005, though there is still hope that Paul Postma, Zach Redmond, Carl Klingberg and Jeremy Morin can still get there). WORST DRAFT: It's a toss-up between 2005 and 2006. While 2005 yielded more games played (296, of which 288 belong to Pavelec vs. 15), I have to go with 2005 as the worst because of where the picks took place. While he had more picks to work with in 2006, it's fait to point out that four of the 8 picks were over the 6th and 7th round. In 2005, Waddell had THREE second rounders and came up with Pavelec and nothing else as neither Chad Denny or Andrew Kozek were even really close to playing in the NHL. WORST PICK: Again a toss-up, it's between Kozek and Denny here, but we'll go with Denny as he was a higher pick and is farther from being an NHL player now than Kozek. While Kozek is playing in the Austrian professional ranks, at least he has played exclusively pro hockey since leaving the NCAA. After a few middling seasons in the AHL, Kozek played a year in Japan, followed by two seasons in Austria (He is signed for a third next season). Denny, meanwhile, signed an NHL deal with Atlanta, played one season mostly in the ECHL, followed by season mostly in the AHL, then two more in the ECHL, then on to Canadian College Hockey, and played last season in the semi-professional LNAH of Quebec. Just think Atlanta could have come out of the 2005 draft with Pavelec, Mason Raymond (taken two picks after Denny) and Adam McQuaid (taken two picks after Kozek) instead of Pavelec and nothing.
04. JIM RUTHERFORD, Carolina (5 Drafts, 15%, 27 Picks, 4 Gems): It's interesting to see Rutherford turn up on the Worst GMs list as he was just hired to run the Pittsburgh Penguins. To be fair to Rutherford, the 2005-2009 period was a rather lean one for pick placement for Carolina (Aside from 2005). Still, though that change the fact that Rutherford turned up just 4 gems in 27 picks (For the record, Jacques Martin, who ran two drafts for the Florida Panthers during this time period, also turned up 4 Gems but he did it in just 12 picks). WORST DRAFT: The 2005 is pretty unquestionably Rutherford's worst. In that draft, despite picking high in each round (Carolina's pick was 3rd overall), Rutherford was only able to pick up 9 NHL games from sixth rounder Nicolas Blanchard. Second rounder Nate Hagemo saw his career derailed by shoulder injuries, substance abuse problems and arrests; Third rounder Joe Barnes struggled to establish himself at the AHL level; Fourth rounder Jakub Vojta never came to North America and made a comeback in the third German division of hockey after a year away from hockey this past year; fellow fourth rounder Ondrej Otcenas came over for one season of OHL hockey before returning to his native Slovakia; Fifth rounders Tim Kunes and Risto Korhonen never signed NHL contracts and are currently playing in Europe while Seventh rounder Kyle Lawson played a few years in the Hurricanes minor system but was inactive this year. WORST PICK: I don't want to pile on Hagemo because he obviously had some personal problems, and, as such, I will also stay away from Bobby Hughes (The Canes 2006 4th rounder was arrested on sexual assault charges, so I'll just largely bypass this area but just quickly point out what a disappointing first round pick Philippe Paradis was in 2009.
05. DAVE NONIS, Vancouver (3 Drafts, 7%, 14 Picks, 1 Gem):: What's fascinating about Nonis' Vancouver tenure is he actually started off quite well choosing Mason Raymond 51st overall and getting 456 NHL games out of the pick. But his drafts got progressively worse (465 GP in 2005, 8 GP in 2006, 0 GP in 2007). Though the problem isn't all Nonis, successor Mike Gillis chose just 1 gem (Kevin Connauton) in his two years at the helm during the period of this analysis, which would seem to reflect poorly on the scouting staff. WORST DRAFT: The aforementioned 0GP draft in 2007. It wasn't just a failure, it was a spectacular one. Taylor Ellington was a terrible pick at #33 (More below). But it doesn't end with Ellington, Charles-Antoine Messier never signed a contract, played some Canadian college hockey and retired; Ilya Kablukov had no interest in coming to North America, Taylor Matson is playing in the ECHL. Dan Gendur actually signed an NHL deal but was traded away with Shane O'Brien for Jonas Andersson and Ryan Parent (neither of whom stuck around). He played Canadian college hockey this past season. WORST PICK: It has to be Ellington at #33. The pick could easily have been Eric Tangradi (136 GP), T.J. Galiardi (283), Nick Spaling (297), Wayne Simmonds (449) and, oh yeah, PK Subban again (284 GP), all of whom were 2nd rounders chosen after Ellington. Ellington signed an NHL deal but was dealt to Columbus to clear a contract slot for deadline rental Sammy Pahlsson. Once his NHL contract expired, he played a year on an ECHL deal and then played this past season for Esbjer in Denmark.
06. DON MALONEY, Phoenix (3 Drafts, 13%, 16 Picks, 2 Gems): Maloney took over for the fired Mike Barnett in 2007 and didn't perform, really, any better than Barnett did at the draft table (Barnett was 20% but it was over only 10 picks). At least Barnett had the excuse of having one pick in the mid-range, Maloney's picks were high (3rd, 6th and 8th) and he still only managed to come up with two gems. WORST DRAFT: The 2008 draft, despite being the draft where Maloney made his best Gem selection (Michael Stone at 69th overall), it was also his worst draft with the least excuses (His 2007 2nd rounder Brett MacLean had to retire due to hear issues after just 18 NHL games, his 2009 2nd rounder Chris Brown still has a bright NHL future just hasn't gotten his chance yet). Taking Jared Staal at #49 smacks of someone ignoring commone sense and going "But his brothers are good...and he's big!" The fact that less than two years later, the Coyotes would dump Staal's rights for that of prospect Ethan Werek tell you all you need to know about the pick. And he was the best pick made outside of Stone. None of Mathieu Brodeur, Colin Long, Brett Hextall or Tim Billingsley have seen NHL action, though Hextall is still very much in the mix, and possibly Brodeur. WORST PICK: If it's not Staal, taken two spots before 197-point-scorer Derek Stepan, then it's probably Joel Gistedt. The Coyotes brought him to North American in 2008 where he toiled for Arizona of the CHL (A league that is below the ECHL on the minor pro food chain) and he couldn't keep his GAA under 4.13 or his Save PCT about .873. Gistedt would spend one more year in minor pro, this time in Las Vegas of the ECHL with similarly stinky numbers before returning to his native Sweden where he played in the Swedish second division before finally playing some games in the SHL last year. Gistedt, barring a miracle turnaround, will likely never play in the NHL despite being a very high pick (36th) overall in a 2nd round that yielded NHLers like Eric Tangradi, PK Subban, and TJ Galiardi, all of whom were chosen after him.
07. SCOTT HOWSON, Columbus (3 Drafts, 16%, 19 Picks, 3 Gems): After turning up in the Top 10 for best GMs at drafting First Rounders, I was surprised at how disappointing Howson's late round finds were as Columbus GM for this time period in spite of the fact his 2008 draft was pretty good: Matt Calvert and cam Atkinson are full-time Blue Jackets while Sean Collins is still a prospect WORST DRAFT: The 2009 Draft at first glance would be the worst as only David Savard has played any NHL games, but Thomas Larkin is still in the system, that said it's looking like Kevin Lynch, Anton Blomqvist adn Kyle Neuber are wash-outs. But you would have to point at Howson's 2007 as his worst draft. Per Gare Joyce's book 'Future Greats and Heartbreaks', Howson boasted of a "dangerous" knowlege of the Oilers draft board when he took over the Jackets, but it sure didn't serve him well. Two second-rounders, Stefan Legein and Will Weber, have yet to play any NHL games (Though Weber is still in the system), and neither has third rounder Jake Hansen (Also still in the system). Fourth Rounder Maksim Mayorov played 22 games before heading back to play in Russia and sixth rounder Allen York got into 11 games when Columbus ran into injury troubles. Seventh rounder Trent Vogelhuber hasn't played any NHL games, but has turned into a mainstay on Columbus' AHL affilated in Springfield. Considering one could swap out Legein, Weber and Hansen for PK Subban, TJ Galiardi and Wayne Simmonds, it's fair to say it hasn't turned out well for the Jackets. WORST PICK: Through no fault of his own, it has to be Maksim Mayorov. Mayorov was a solid player who grew tired of playing in the AHL and sought to play in the KHL for more money, and that's no big deal. Truthfully, it's impressive that a fourth rounder got into any games at all when it all comes down to it and Columbus still controls Mayorov's rights in case they decide to give him another shot. What makes it a big deal, is what Scott Howson gave up to get him. At the table, to move up and snag Mayorov, Howson gave Dallas 3 fifth round picks. With two of the picks, Dallas chose Austin Smith and Michael Neal. Roman suffered injury issues and never panned out while Neal failed to live up to lofty expectations set up by his brother James. But with the other fifth round pick, Dallas selected Canadian Olympian and 79-point player Jamie Benn. That is enough to cement it as Howson's worst pick.
08. DARRYL SUTTER, Calgary (5 Drafts, 17%, 29 Picks, 5 Gems): Unfortunately for Sutter, who has turned up to be a much better coach than GM, Sutter turns up on a 'Worst of' list yet again. Again, for Sutter, there are some caveats as it has to be stated that Sutter's picks were mostly in the back third of these drafts, he had one solid-looking 5th round prospect pass away (Mickey Renaud) and that only once in the time period did he have a second rounder. There are still a ton of bad picks, though, but his 2008 draft was solid as he turned up Lance Bouma (121 GP) and Top 4 d-man T.J. Brodie (185 GP). WORST DRAFT: The 2009 draft still has an outside chance of being Sutter's best over the time period, but at the moment it's probably the worst. In the third round, he chose Ryan Howse (11 picks later Cody Eakin was chosen) who's game was a little slow to develop but was still in Calgary's plans when he no-showed training camp this year and decided to quit hockey. In the fourth and fifth rounds, he chose Henrik Bjorklund and Spencer Bennett, respectively, neither of whom was offered a contract, and his 7th rounder Gaelan Patterson signed his ELC but never rose above the ECHL level before being let go. But there is hope, sixth rounder Joni Ortio came to North America shortly after being signed, played 10 games in the AHL and returned to Finland for two years, but he came back this past season and excelled in the AHL and even got into 9 games with the Flames. Should he choose to remain in North America, he has a chance to singled-handedly turn this draft around for the Flames, and for Sutter's record. WORST PICK: Sutter's only second rounder over this timer period, was Mitch Wahl, chosen 48th overall in 2008 but he struggled mightily. After failing to establish himself as a prospect, his rights were traded to Philadelphia who chose not to retain him at season's end. Within five picks of his selection, New York obtained Top 2 centerman Derek Stepan while the Islanders chose Top 4 d-man Travis Hamonic.
09. LARRY PLEAU, St. Louis (5 Drafts, 18%, 34 Picks, 6 Gems): Pleau, the undisputed king of choosing First Rounders over this time frame, actually comes in on the worst list! It's actually quite shocking how many failures Pleau had outside of the 2005 draft where he nabbed Ben Bishop in the 3rd and Ryan Reaves in the 5th. 2006 saw him turn up 41 NHL games; 2007 was 131; 2008 was 36 and 2009 turned up none. When you look at the picks, though, a lot of them weren't bad, they just didn't want to stay/come to North America: Jonas Junland, Simon Hjalmarsson and Jori Lehtera would all have likely been gems had hey been willing to come to/hang around North America longer (Hjalmarsson actually just signed a contract with Columbus) WORST DRAFT: It has to be 2008 as Pleau had 9 picks outside of the first round, including two 2nds, two 3rds and one in each of the remaining rounds. Jake Allen, though short of qualifying as a Gem, was given Gem status as he will be one of the Blues top 2 goalies next year, but other than that, it's not so good. Second rounder Phil McRae played 15 games before leaving for Finland. The third round went worse as Lehtera is uninterested in playing AHL hockey, and James Livingston was never signed (He was later signed by San Jose who moved his rights to LA this past season) while Ian Schultz signed a deal, the hard-hitting forward was moved to Montreal in the Jaroslav Halak deal and never made the NHL. Fourth rounder David Warsofsky is in Boston's AHL system and has played 6 NHL games while the Blues Fifth (Kristoffer Berglund), Sixth (Anthony Nigro), and Seventh pick (Paul Karpowich) never played an NHL game and are all UFAs. WORST PICK: Scott Jackson, the Blues 2nd rounder in 2005 was a high second rounder (37th overall) whom the Blues chose not to sign. Jackson was signed by Tampa Bay, played 1 NHL game and has been out of hockey since 2012. The big defender ran into injury troubles, if memory serves, but even if he hadn't, it's unlikely he would have had the impact Justin Abdelkader (327 GP), Mason Raymond (456 GP) and Paul Stastny (538 GP) had, all of whom were selected within 15 picks after Jackson.
10. GEORGE MCPHEE, Washington (5 Drafts, 18%, 34 Picks, 6 Gems): McPhee was tied for the 2nd most picks of any GM on this list (With Larry Pleau who also had 34) but he also tied with Pleau for the most Gems of anyone on the list with 6. McPhee's 2009 draft spared him from being much higher on this list as he was able to nab Dmitry Orlov and Cody Eakin in the 2nd and 3rd round respectively. WORST DRAFT: McPhee's 2007 draft was dreadful as no one outside of First Rounder Karl Alzner ever played an NHL game depsite McPhee making 9 picks (!) outside the first round. WORST PICK: In the 2006 draft McPhee found himself with 2 back-to-back 2nd rounders at #34 and 35. With the first pick, he chose well selecting goalie Michal Neuvirth. Unfortunately, with his second pick at #35 he chose Francois Bouchard just one spot ahead of 347-GP winger Jamie McGinn. At least McPhee was able to parlay Bouchard into defenceman Tomas Kundratek who might still have an NHL future. Just think, though, instead, in hindsight, McPhee could have landed his team Milan Lucic who went 15 picks later to the Bruins and would like quite good on that Capitals team.
THE WORST GMS
01. DALE TALLON, Chicago (5 Drafts, 11%, 38 Picks, 4 Gems): Though Tallon's found more Gems than most of the GMs this high on the list (4), I'm putting him at #1 because of the massive amount of picks he had (38!) which is at least 4 more than any other GM over this time period. Plus, those first four drafts Tallon oversaw were all high, high draft picks (7th, 3rd, 1st and 11th). WORST DRAFT: He had a few, but 2006 stands as the worst. Eight draft picks, including two 2nds, 1 3rd and two 4ths and the only one outside of first rounder Jonathan Toews to make it into the NHL was 7th rounder Peter LeBlanc who played 1 game for Washington this past season. Just doing a quick bit of revisionist history, here, but Tallon could have come out of the 2006 draft with Jonathan Toews, Milan Lucic, Brad Marchand, Tom Sestito, James Reimer, Matt Beleseky, Andrew MacDonald, Mathieu Perreault and Derek Dorsett instead of, you know, Jonthan Toews and Peter LeBlanc. Just saying... WORST PICK: It's pretty apparent that whoever scouted Simon Danis-Papin saw his size listing and thought "Yup, that's our guy", because the fact of teh matter is that Danis-Papin not only flopped as an NHL prospect but has also not got the ability to be an AHL player as he only managed to get into 75 AHL games in the 5 years he's played professional hockey.
02. PETE CHIARELI, Boston (3 Drafts, 0%, 14 Picks, 0 Gems): I don't think there are too many Bruins fans who would like to see Chiarelli dismissed, based on the Bruins Cup win in 2011, as well as Cup appearance in 2013. But Chiarelli has not drafted well, at all, since taking over as Bruins GM. In fact, what's particularly striking about his failure (Besides the fact that he turned up 0 Gems in 3 drafts! The only other GMs to not turn up a Gem were Mike Milbury and Mike Keenan who only oversaw 3 drafts between them!) is that Chiarelli's two predecessors: Mike O'Connell and interim-GM Jeff Gorton, both actually had solid drafts in this time frame. In 2005, O'Connell found Vladimir Sobotka in the 4th round and he's gone on to play 381 NHL games (3 other O'Connell non-first rounders also saw limited NHL time). Meanwhile, Gorton turned in one of the finer 1 draft performances in 2006, landing the Bruins 485 GP power forward Milan Lucic late in the 2nd round in and picking up 300 GP pest Brad Marchand in the 3rd. Both were key players in the Bruins two Cup appearances. WORST DRAFT: Take your pick. Was it Chiarelli's first draft in 2007 where he failed to turn up a Gem in 5 non-first round picks? Was it the 2008 draft where 5 non-first rounders yielded 3 NHL players, though just 5 games played (Though Michael Hutchinson is having a wonderful AHL playoff run right now...with Winnipeg)? Or was it the 2009 draft where 4 picks yielded 1 NHL player, Lane MacDermid who played 21 NHL games before deciding to retire after a midseason demotion by Calgary. It's probably 2007. It's not just that the players failed to make the NHL, it's the fact they failed to come close, really. Tommy Cross is still a prospect in the AHL for the Bruins, but Denis Reul, Alain Goulet and Radim Ostrcil never even signed NHL deals while Jordan Knackstedt hung around the AHL for a while before ending up in Italy, Sweden and finally back in North America for Bakersfield of the ECHL this past season. WORST PICK: Maxime Sauve was a 47th overall 2nd rounder who has only played 1 NHL game and is currently on an AHL deal. The fact his pick came just 6 slots before Derek Stepan probably cements it. Tommy Cross merits a mention as this was the first year he able to cement himself as a regular AHL player and he was a high 2nd rounder (35th overall) who came just 8 picks before Norris Trophy winner P.K. Subban.
03. DON WADDELL, Atlanta (5 Drafts, 10%, 31 Picks, 3 Gems): Boy, was Waddell's run with Atlanta fairly disappointing on all fronts. In all his drafts over this period, he had exactly one pick outside the first round turn into an NHL player and that's Ondrej Pavelec (41st overall in 2005, though there is still hope that Paul Postma, Zach Redmond, Carl Klingberg and Jeremy Morin can still get there). WORST DRAFT: It's a toss-up between 2005 and 2006. While 2005 yielded more games played (296, of which 288 belong to Pavelec vs. 15), I have to go with 2005 as the worst because of where the picks took place. While he had more picks to work with in 2006, it's fait to point out that four of the 8 picks were over the 6th and 7th round. In 2005, Waddell had THREE second rounders and came up with Pavelec and nothing else as neither Chad Denny or Andrew Kozek were even really close to playing in the NHL. WORST PICK: Again a toss-up, it's between Kozek and Denny here, but we'll go with Denny as he was a higher pick and is farther from being an NHL player now than Kozek. While Kozek is playing in the Austrian professional ranks, at least he has played exclusively pro hockey since leaving the NCAA. After a few middling seasons in the AHL, Kozek played a year in Japan, followed by two seasons in Austria (He is signed for a third next season). Denny, meanwhile, signed an NHL deal with Atlanta, played one season mostly in the ECHL, followed by season mostly in the AHL, then two more in the ECHL, then on to Canadian College Hockey, and played last season in the semi-professional LNAH of Quebec. Just think Atlanta could have come out of the 2005 draft with Pavelec, Mason Raymond (taken two picks after Denny) and Adam McQuaid (taken two picks after Kozek) instead of Pavelec and nothing.
04. JIM RUTHERFORD, Carolina (5 Drafts, 15%, 27 Picks, 4 Gems): It's interesting to see Rutherford turn up on the Worst GMs list as he was just hired to run the Pittsburgh Penguins. To be fair to Rutherford, the 2005-2009 period was a rather lean one for pick placement for Carolina (Aside from 2005). Still, though that change the fact that Rutherford turned up just 4 gems in 27 picks (For the record, Jacques Martin, who ran two drafts for the Florida Panthers during this time period, also turned up 4 Gems but he did it in just 12 picks). WORST DRAFT: The 2005 is pretty unquestionably Rutherford's worst. In that draft, despite picking high in each round (Carolina's pick was 3rd overall), Rutherford was only able to pick up 9 NHL games from sixth rounder Nicolas Blanchard. Second rounder Nate Hagemo saw his career derailed by shoulder injuries, substance abuse problems and arrests; Third rounder Joe Barnes struggled to establish himself at the AHL level; Fourth rounder Jakub Vojta never came to North America and made a comeback in the third German division of hockey after a year away from hockey this past year; fellow fourth rounder Ondrej Otcenas came over for one season of OHL hockey before returning to his native Slovakia; Fifth rounders Tim Kunes and Risto Korhonen never signed NHL contracts and are currently playing in Europe while Seventh rounder Kyle Lawson played a few years in the Hurricanes minor system but was inactive this year. WORST PICK: I don't want to pile on Hagemo because he obviously had some personal problems, and, as such, I will also stay away from Bobby Hughes (The Canes 2006 4th rounder was arrested on sexual assault charges, so I'll just largely bypass this area but just quickly point out what a disappointing first round pick Philippe Paradis was in 2009.
05. DAVE NONIS, Vancouver (3 Drafts, 7%, 14 Picks, 1 Gem):: What's fascinating about Nonis' Vancouver tenure is he actually started off quite well choosing Mason Raymond 51st overall and getting 456 NHL games out of the pick. But his drafts got progressively worse (465 GP in 2005, 8 GP in 2006, 0 GP in 2007). Though the problem isn't all Nonis, successor Mike Gillis chose just 1 gem (Kevin Connauton) in his two years at the helm during the period of this analysis, which would seem to reflect poorly on the scouting staff. WORST DRAFT: The aforementioned 0GP draft in 2007. It wasn't just a failure, it was a spectacular one. Taylor Ellington was a terrible pick at #33 (More below). But it doesn't end with Ellington, Charles-Antoine Messier never signed a contract, played some Canadian college hockey and retired; Ilya Kablukov had no interest in coming to North America, Taylor Matson is playing in the ECHL. Dan Gendur actually signed an NHL deal but was traded away with Shane O'Brien for Jonas Andersson and Ryan Parent (neither of whom stuck around). He played Canadian college hockey this past season. WORST PICK: It has to be Ellington at #33. The pick could easily have been Eric Tangradi (136 GP), T.J. Galiardi (283), Nick Spaling (297), Wayne Simmonds (449) and, oh yeah, PK Subban again (284 GP), all of whom were 2nd rounders chosen after Ellington. Ellington signed an NHL deal but was dealt to Columbus to clear a contract slot for deadline rental Sammy Pahlsson. Once his NHL contract expired, he played a year on an ECHL deal and then played this past season for Esbjer in Denmark.
06. DON MALONEY, Phoenix (3 Drafts, 13%, 16 Picks, 2 Gems): Maloney took over for the fired Mike Barnett in 2007 and didn't perform, really, any better than Barnett did at the draft table (Barnett was 20% but it was over only 10 picks). At least Barnett had the excuse of having one pick in the mid-range, Maloney's picks were high (3rd, 6th and 8th) and he still only managed to come up with two gems. WORST DRAFT: The 2008 draft, despite being the draft where Maloney made his best Gem selection (Michael Stone at 69th overall), it was also his worst draft with the least excuses (His 2007 2nd rounder Brett MacLean had to retire due to hear issues after just 18 NHL games, his 2009 2nd rounder Chris Brown still has a bright NHL future just hasn't gotten his chance yet). Taking Jared Staal at #49 smacks of someone ignoring commone sense and going "But his brothers are good...and he's big!" The fact that less than two years later, the Coyotes would dump Staal's rights for that of prospect Ethan Werek tell you all you need to know about the pick. And he was the best pick made outside of Stone. None of Mathieu Brodeur, Colin Long, Brett Hextall or Tim Billingsley have seen NHL action, though Hextall is still very much in the mix, and possibly Brodeur. WORST PICK: If it's not Staal, taken two spots before 197-point-scorer Derek Stepan, then it's probably Joel Gistedt. The Coyotes brought him to North American in 2008 where he toiled for Arizona of the CHL (A league that is below the ECHL on the minor pro food chain) and he couldn't keep his GAA under 4.13 or his Save PCT about .873. Gistedt would spend one more year in minor pro, this time in Las Vegas of the ECHL with similarly stinky numbers before returning to his native Sweden where he played in the Swedish second division before finally playing some games in the SHL last year. Gistedt, barring a miracle turnaround, will likely never play in the NHL despite being a very high pick (36th) overall in a 2nd round that yielded NHLers like Eric Tangradi, PK Subban, and TJ Galiardi, all of whom were chosen after him.
07. SCOTT HOWSON, Columbus (3 Drafts, 16%, 19 Picks, 3 Gems): After turning up in the Top 10 for best GMs at drafting First Rounders, I was surprised at how disappointing Howson's late round finds were as Columbus GM for this time period in spite of the fact his 2008 draft was pretty good: Matt Calvert and cam Atkinson are full-time Blue Jackets while Sean Collins is still a prospect WORST DRAFT: The 2009 Draft at first glance would be the worst as only David Savard has played any NHL games, but Thomas Larkin is still in the system, that said it's looking like Kevin Lynch, Anton Blomqvist adn Kyle Neuber are wash-outs. But you would have to point at Howson's 2007 as his worst draft. Per Gare Joyce's book 'Future Greats and Heartbreaks', Howson boasted of a "dangerous" knowlege of the Oilers draft board when he took over the Jackets, but it sure didn't serve him well. Two second-rounders, Stefan Legein and Will Weber, have yet to play any NHL games (Though Weber is still in the system), and neither has third rounder Jake Hansen (Also still in the system). Fourth Rounder Maksim Mayorov played 22 games before heading back to play in Russia and sixth rounder Allen York got into 11 games when Columbus ran into injury troubles. Seventh rounder Trent Vogelhuber hasn't played any NHL games, but has turned into a mainstay on Columbus' AHL affilated in Springfield. Considering one could swap out Legein, Weber and Hansen for PK Subban, TJ Galiardi and Wayne Simmonds, it's fair to say it hasn't turned out well for the Jackets. WORST PICK: Through no fault of his own, it has to be Maksim Mayorov. Mayorov was a solid player who grew tired of playing in the AHL and sought to play in the KHL for more money, and that's no big deal. Truthfully, it's impressive that a fourth rounder got into any games at all when it all comes down to it and Columbus still controls Mayorov's rights in case they decide to give him another shot. What makes it a big deal, is what Scott Howson gave up to get him. At the table, to move up and snag Mayorov, Howson gave Dallas 3 fifth round picks. With two of the picks, Dallas chose Austin Smith and Michael Neal. Roman suffered injury issues and never panned out while Neal failed to live up to lofty expectations set up by his brother James. But with the other fifth round pick, Dallas selected Canadian Olympian and 79-point player Jamie Benn. That is enough to cement it as Howson's worst pick.
08. DARRYL SUTTER, Calgary (5 Drafts, 17%, 29 Picks, 5 Gems): Unfortunately for Sutter, who has turned up to be a much better coach than GM, Sutter turns up on a 'Worst of' list yet again. Again, for Sutter, there are some caveats as it has to be stated that Sutter's picks were mostly in the back third of these drafts, he had one solid-looking 5th round prospect pass away (Mickey Renaud) and that only once in the time period did he have a second rounder. There are still a ton of bad picks, though, but his 2008 draft was solid as he turned up Lance Bouma (121 GP) and Top 4 d-man T.J. Brodie (185 GP). WORST DRAFT: The 2009 draft still has an outside chance of being Sutter's best over the time period, but at the moment it's probably the worst. In the third round, he chose Ryan Howse (11 picks later Cody Eakin was chosen) who's game was a little slow to develop but was still in Calgary's plans when he no-showed training camp this year and decided to quit hockey. In the fourth and fifth rounds, he chose Henrik Bjorklund and Spencer Bennett, respectively, neither of whom was offered a contract, and his 7th rounder Gaelan Patterson signed his ELC but never rose above the ECHL level before being let go. But there is hope, sixth rounder Joni Ortio came to North America shortly after being signed, played 10 games in the AHL and returned to Finland for two years, but he came back this past season and excelled in the AHL and even got into 9 games with the Flames. Should he choose to remain in North America, he has a chance to singled-handedly turn this draft around for the Flames, and for Sutter's record. WORST PICK: Sutter's only second rounder over this timer period, was Mitch Wahl, chosen 48th overall in 2008 but he struggled mightily. After failing to establish himself as a prospect, his rights were traded to Philadelphia who chose not to retain him at season's end. Within five picks of his selection, New York obtained Top 2 centerman Derek Stepan while the Islanders chose Top 4 d-man Travis Hamonic.
09. LARRY PLEAU, St. Louis (5 Drafts, 18%, 34 Picks, 6 Gems): Pleau, the undisputed king of choosing First Rounders over this time frame, actually comes in on the worst list! It's actually quite shocking how many failures Pleau had outside of the 2005 draft where he nabbed Ben Bishop in the 3rd and Ryan Reaves in the 5th. 2006 saw him turn up 41 NHL games; 2007 was 131; 2008 was 36 and 2009 turned up none. When you look at the picks, though, a lot of them weren't bad, they just didn't want to stay/come to North America: Jonas Junland, Simon Hjalmarsson and Jori Lehtera would all have likely been gems had hey been willing to come to/hang around North America longer (Hjalmarsson actually just signed a contract with Columbus) WORST DRAFT: It has to be 2008 as Pleau had 9 picks outside of the first round, including two 2nds, two 3rds and one in each of the remaining rounds. Jake Allen, though short of qualifying as a Gem, was given Gem status as he will be one of the Blues top 2 goalies next year, but other than that, it's not so good. Second rounder Phil McRae played 15 games before leaving for Finland. The third round went worse as Lehtera is uninterested in playing AHL hockey, and James Livingston was never signed (He was later signed by San Jose who moved his rights to LA this past season) while Ian Schultz signed a deal, the hard-hitting forward was moved to Montreal in the Jaroslav Halak deal and never made the NHL. Fourth rounder David Warsofsky is in Boston's AHL system and has played 6 NHL games while the Blues Fifth (Kristoffer Berglund), Sixth (Anthony Nigro), and Seventh pick (Paul Karpowich) never played an NHL game and are all UFAs. WORST PICK: Scott Jackson, the Blues 2nd rounder in 2005 was a high second rounder (37th overall) whom the Blues chose not to sign. Jackson was signed by Tampa Bay, played 1 NHL game and has been out of hockey since 2012. The big defender ran into injury troubles, if memory serves, but even if he hadn't, it's unlikely he would have had the impact Justin Abdelkader (327 GP), Mason Raymond (456 GP) and Paul Stastny (538 GP) had, all of whom were selected within 15 picks after Jackson.
10. GEORGE MCPHEE, Washington (5 Drafts, 18%, 34 Picks, 6 Gems): McPhee was tied for the 2nd most picks of any GM on this list (With Larry Pleau who also had 34) but he also tied with Pleau for the most Gems of anyone on the list with 6. McPhee's 2009 draft spared him from being much higher on this list as he was able to nab Dmitry Orlov and Cody Eakin in the 2nd and 3rd round respectively. WORST DRAFT: McPhee's 2007 draft was dreadful as no one outside of First Rounder Karl Alzner ever played an NHL game depsite McPhee making 9 picks (!) outside the first round. WORST PICK: In the 2006 draft McPhee found himself with 2 back-to-back 2nd rounders at #34 and 35. With the first pick, he chose well selecting goalie Michal Neuvirth. Unfortunately, with his second pick at #35 he chose Francois Bouchard just one spot ahead of 347-GP winger Jamie McGinn. At least McPhee was able to parlay Bouchard into defenceman Tomas Kundratek who might still have an NHL future. Just think, though, instead, in hindsight, McPhee could have landed his team Milan Lucic who went 15 picks later to the Bruins and would like quite good on that Capitals team.
Thursday, June 12, 2014
Mining Gems Outside the First Round, Who's the Best GM?
I thought that, after posting my findings on which GMs excelled and failed at drafting first round picks over the period of 2005-2009 that I'd do another analysis, this time of which GMs excelled at choosing players outside of the first round.
To determine what exactly constitutes what we'll call -for the purposes of this analysis and my own aversion to having to type out something longer - successful non First Round picks as 'Gems'. I did an easy-peasy formula by which I calculated the average amount of Games Played by round, then included every pick who played more than the average number of Games Played and designated him as a 'Gem' (In some cases, I fudged the numbers up a little for goaltenders as there aren't nearly as many games available for them, so Dustin Tokarski who, after his playoff run, is likely to be in the NHL next year and therefore I included him as a Gem even though he was a few games short). There are shortcomings with the formula, for one, it makes no differential between a sure-fire top of the round 2nd rounder or a 7th rounder who plays a handful of games and, for another, a team like Atlanta or the NY Islanders is much more likely to throw their prospects a few games down the stretch than the Detroit Red Wings. But, it's a quick and dirty, very unscientific look at something that isn't often discussed.
I'm going to start today with the Best GMs at selecting Gems outside of the first round over this time period.
01. DAVID POILE, Nashville (5 Drafts, 33%, 33 Total Picks, 11 Gems): I noted that Poile, whose name came up on the list of the Worst GMs for selecting first round picks over this time period, had made a lot of his name as drafting guru by finding later round picks and Poile proved that here, with what I determined to be the impressive showing. Though his percentage is a little bit lower at 33% than the guys after him, he selected more Gems (11) than any other GM over this time period (Though, admittedly, he ranked third for most picks over the time period, as well). BEST DRAFT: Even though the 2005 draft turned up more established players in Cody Franson and Patric Hornqvist, I think, in time, the 2009 Draft will be recognized as Poile's masterpiece. First he nabbed forward prospects Taylor Beck and Michael Latta (Since traded) in the 3rd round, he got Craig Smith (100 points in 195 games so far) in the 4th round along with Mattias Ekholm (Who looks like he's going to stick with Nashville for the forseeable future) and nabbed Gabriel Bourque (151 GP) in the 5th round. This has the potential to get even better for Poile as 2nd rounder Zach Budish is just in his first year of pro hockey. BEST PICK: It has to be the aforementioned Hornqvist. Poile not only got the 636 GP, 106 Goal, 216 Point forward in the 7th round but he got him with the last pick, 230th overall! Hornqvist has more goals scored than all but 6 players taken ahead of him, four of whom are first-round picks.
02. DOUG WILSON, San Jose (5 Drafts, 33%, 30 Total Picks, 10 Gems): Wilson came in 2nd for total Gems drafted with 10 but he also had 30 picks over the time frame which puts him at 33%. He's hurt a little by his 2009 draft which has only produced 9 NHL games with 5 draft picks. This could improve next year as Phil Varone played some games with Buffalo this year (He is the only player to make in the NHL so far) and could play more next year while Taylor Doherty might be penciled in as the Sharks #7 d-man to start next season. BEST DRAFT: Wilson's 2007 draft is notable for how much Wilson was able to get out of so little. With 4 picks through the 6th and 7th round, he managed to choose three players that would go on to play 100+ NHL games. He got Nick Bonino at 173rd (6th round), then Justin Braun at 201st (7th) and Frazer McLaren at 203rd (7th). Wilson's draft would have been even more spectacular if he hadn't whiffed on a pair of 3rd round goalies (Tyson Sexsmith and Timo Pielmeier) and had opted for the likes of Joakim Andersson and Alec Martinez who both went within 12 picks of the two goaltenders. BEST PICK: The fact that he's a high second rounder (35th) might possibly make the selection of Marc-Edouard Vlasic less impressive than nabbing a 200+ GP defenceman in the 7th round (Wilson did it twice: Justin Braun in 2007 and Jason Demers in 2008!) to some, but the sheer fact that Vlasic has played 600 NHL games, won a Gold Medal with Canada in these past Olympics and has played more NHL games than every other player from 2005, save for Anze Kopitar (Who bests him by 4) and is probably a Top 10 defenceman in the NHL makes him Wilson's best pick. The fact that he was the fourteenth defenceman drafted in 2005 is truly staggering (Behind the likes of Sasha Pokulok, Matt Pelech, Joe Finley (Washington had two cracks at him and chose someone else both times! Both totaling less than 21 NHL GP!), and Vladimir Mihalik!).
03. JOHN FERGUSON JR., Toronto (3 Drafts, 41%, 17 Total Picks, 7 Gems): I'd always suspected Ferguson, as a former scout, had a solid draft record but even I (One of his biggest supporters) had no idea it was this good! Ferguson Jr. over this period drafted a Gem outside of the first round 41% of the time which is tied for the highest mark of any GM, besides Garth Snow (who had the same percentage, but drafted two more Gems than Ferguson, but with 5 less picks) who participated in at least 3 drafts. BEST DRAFT: Though his two best picks (Detailed below) came in 2005 and 2007, JFJ's best draft is his 2006 draft. Every player he selected in that draft played in the NHL except for 6th rounder Tyler Ruegsegger. He got Nikolai Kulemin in the 2nd round (421 GP, 195 PTS), James Reimer (140 GP) in the 4th along with NHL/AHL tweener Korbinian Holzer (24 GP), Viktor Stalberg (313 GP, 122 PTS) in the 6th rounder, then picked Leo Komarov (42 NHL GP, likely to be more as he's possibly returning to the NHL next year) also in the 6th with the 180th pick overall. That's 4 NHL regulars with 6 picks outside of the first round. Nothing wrong with that. BEST PICK: Ferguson scored twice in the 7th round with selecting defenders as he got 394 GP d-man Anton Stralman in that round in 2005, but his biggest score is definitely landing current Leaf Carl Gunnarsson 194th overall in 2007. Gunnarsson has actually played in more NHL games (304) than every other defenceman selected in 2007's draft, save for Top 5 pick Karl Alzner, and has played more games than 199 other players chosen in that draft.
04. GARTH SNOW, NY Islanders (3 Drafts, 41%, 22 Total Picks, 9 Gems): Now, you can mark an asterisk next to Snow for a few reasons, if you wish: #1. He often drafted very high over his 3 drafts as Isles GM during this time period, so he's picking from fringe first rounders at the beginning of the 2nd round; #2. His players are likely to play more games because the Islanders weren't very good over this time frame and #3. He was only GM for three drafts. But, putting that aside, he still rates highly based on the fact that he had a success rate of 41% (tied with John Ferguson Jr.) which lead all GMs with a minimum of three drafts under their control. BEST DRAFT: Despite the fact that every single player he chose in 2009 making the NHL for at least one game, no draft impacted Snow's record quite like the 2008 draft where he picked Travis Hamonic in the 2nd round, Matt Donovan in the 4th round, and Kevin Poulin and Matt Martin in the 5th round. Imagine if he'd passed up Corey Trivino at #36 and nabbed Roman Josi who went two picks later! BEST PICK: Interestingly, Snow's best pick of 2008, and best over this period, was probably a player he decided after two years not to tender a contract: Jared Spurgeon. That fall, he attended Minnesota's rookie camp and won himself a contract. Spurgeon has now played 229 games in the NHL and he was a 6th round pick, 156th overall!
05. DARCY REGIER, Buffalo (5 Drafts, 28%, 32 Total Picks, 9 Gems): Regier's tenure in Buffalo is not remembered with fondness because of the futility of his team over the last few years but he was actually a really succesful drafter. He had the 3rd highest percentage (28%) of GMs to oversee all 5 drafts over this period and is one of only 4 GMs to choose Gem in every one of the 5 drafts (Ken Holland, Glen Sather, and Lou Lamiorello being the others). BEST DRAFT: Despite these solid numbers, Regier didn't really have any outstanding drafts. 2009 yielded Brayden McNabb and Nick Foligno, 2008 turned up Tyler Ennis, and 2006 turned up Mike Weber and Jhonas Enroth, but 2005 would probably be the best. In the 2005 draft, despite whiffing badly on his 2nd rounder (Philip Gogulla never played in the NHL, three picks later Vancouver snagged Mason Raymond), Regier was able to add 74 NHL GP (Marc-Andre Gragnani at #87), 349 GP (Chris Butler at #96) and 269 GP (Nathan Gerbe at #142). BEST PICK: One could make a case that it's probably Butler, but I''m going to err on the side of potential and go with Marcus Foligno here. Foligno, nabbed in the fourth round with the 104th overall pick, has really come out of nowhere to look like a solid NHL power forward in waiting. Despite the fact that he never reached the 60 point plateau in the OHL, his first season in the AHL so him hit 39 and he's had seasons of 13 (in 14 GP), 18 (in 47 GP) and 19 points (in 74 GP) in his three seasons in the NHL. I think when Buffalo surrounds him with some more talent, we might see his point totals go up.
06. DOUG ARMSTRONG, Dallas (3 Drafts, 33%, 18 Total Picks, 6 Gems): When Armstrong was let go as Stars GM in 2008 to be replaced by the short-lived combo of Les Jackson and Brett Hull (Who ran 1 draft turning up 1 Gem in 5 picks), he actually had one of the better draft records of NHL GMs. Though he only had 18 total picks, 6 of those were Gems. BEST DRAFT: The 2005 draft saw Armstrong net future 40 goal/80 point player James Neal with a second round pick. He also managed to snag Richard Clune in the 3rd round (119 NHL GP) and then Tom Wandell in the 5th (229 NHL GP). Additionally, of his other three picks, Perttu Lindgren (3rd), Matt Watkins (5th) and Pat McGann (7th), the former two both played a handful of games meaning that 6 of the 7 players he drafted that year saw some NHL time. BEST PICK: His best pick is one of the best picks anyone made over this timeframe, that being Jamie Benn in the 5th round, 129th overall, out of the BCHL. Benn, a Canadian Olympic Gold medallist, has 116 goals and 272 points in 344 NHL games.
07. DEAN LOMBARDI, Los Angeles (4 Drafts, 28%, 29 Total Picks, 8 Gems): Lombardi took over for Dave Taylor in 2006 and compiled a very good draft record despite whiffing on all 7 non first round picks of his 2006 draft (Only Jeff Zatkoff with 20 GP has played in the NHL). BEST DRAFT: There's little question it has to be his 2007 draft. Lombardi started by getting Oscar Moller at #52 (He played 87 NHL GP before returning to Sweden and the Kings are rumored to be interested in bringing him back to North America this summer), then snagged Wayne Simmonds (449 NHL GP and a key piece used to acquire Mike Richards) at #61, Alec Martinez (203 GP) at #95 and Dwight King (157 GP) at #109. Two of those picks are important cogs on the Kings current Stanley Cup run and a third was used to acquire another key piece. BEST PICK: Lobardi got a lot of NHL games out of a lot of places (Loktionov's 155 GP at #123 in 2008, Jordan Nolan's 134 GP at #186 in 2009). But his best pick might well be a high 2nd rounder, 32nd overall, which is where he nabbed Slava Voynov in the 2008 draft. Voynov plays big minutes for the Kings and is a crucial player on their blueline.
08. KEN HOLLAND, Detroit (5 Drafts, 26%, 31 Total Picks, 8 Gems): Detroit and Holland have a reputation at unearthing late round gems, largely due to their European scouting, but credit should be given also to their North American scouting who turned up an equal amount of Gems over this stretch. BEST DRAFT: Holland's best draft is interesting because it produced two players that will be over the 300 NHL GP mark early next season but are both North Americans. Getting Justin Abdelkader at 42nd overall of the 2nd round was a great pick (327 GP) but getting Darren Helm at 132nd overall for 291 GP is even more impressive. Additionally, Mattias Ritola played 43 games before returning to Europe. The Red Wings were also high on 5th rounder Johan Ryno, but he lasted just 12 games in the AHL before getting homesick and returning to Sweden. BEST PICK: Holland has great picks all over the place including the aforementioned Abdelkader and Helm, as well as Shawn Matthias 47th in 2006, Joakim Andersson at 88th in 2007, and Tomas Tatar at 60th in 2009, but his best pick, based on a small sample size, looks to be snagging Gustav Nyquist 121st overall in 2008. Nyquist, who went on a tear this season with Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg and Johan Franzen out putting up 48 points in just 57 games. If he can bottle that pace up, he will have a very successful NHL career ahead.
09. GLEN SATHER, NY Rangers (5 Drafts, 26%, 31 Total Picks, 8 Gems): As I mentioned in the First Rounder discussion, Sather has a reputation as a trading/signing GM but his prowess at the draft table is often undervalued, but here he is again turning up on a 'Best of' list in regards to drafting. As mentioned above, Sather is one of only 4 GMs in this analysis who was able to draft a Gem in every single draft over the five year period. BEST DRAFT: It has to be 2008. In 2008 Sather was able to secure 537 NHL GP out of his 6 non-First Round picks. Two of those players have gone on two very succesful NHL careers, Dale Weise was a star in the playoffs for Montreal and with 179 GP after being selected at #111 he's defied the odds. Even better, though, is Derek Stepan, nabbed at #51 who has 197 points in 294 NHL games. BEST PICK: Artem Anisimov with 165 points in 360 GP is close, but is has to be Stepan who is fifth in points for 2008 draft picks (Trailing only first rounders Steven Stamkos, Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty and Jordan Eberle) despite being only 12th in NHL GP.
10. PAUL HOLMGREN, Philadelphia (3 Drafts, 31%, 16 Total Picks, 5 Gems): Holmgren ran the Flyers last three drafts and while he wasn't able to grab a franchise forward in the first round and forget his name like his predecessor Bobby Clarke had done, Holmgren actually did very okay for himself in nabbing Gems as just shy of one-third of hits non-First Rounders were Gems. That said, a lot of Homlgren's Gems were picks who played a few games in notoriously bad rounds (For instance Oliver Lauridsen's 15 NHL GP has him 3rd for his round in 2009, and Marc-Andre Bourdon's 45 GP puts him 6th for his round in 2008). BEST DRAFT: Holmgren's best draft is likely his 2008 draft in which 3 of his 4 non-First Rounders all have played in the NHL. The aforementioned Bourdon was looking like an NHL regular before concussions derailed him, he finally got back into regular AHL hockey at the end of last season, so he could have more ahead of him. Sixth rounder Zac Rinaldo has put up 165 NHL games while 7th rounder Joacim Eriksson has seen one game of NHL action but looks poised to be Vancouver's #3 goalie for the forseeable future. BEST PICK: Right now it's Rinaldo, the agitator who has exceeded all expectations by playing in 165 NHL games while piling up 470 penalty minutes. But if Patrick Maroon (6th round, 161st in 2007) continues his ascent from this past season (29 points in 62 games, an additional 7 in 13 playoff games), he could very well be the best Gem of Holmgren's tenure.
11. BRYAN MURRAY, Ottawa (3 Drafts, 29%, 17 Total Picks, 5 Gems): I've always thought it was weird the way John Muckler, as GM, lead the Senators to the Stanley Cup finals only to get fired a couple weeks later and replaced by Murray (For the record, Muckler, over two drafts actually had a higher Gem percentage than Murray with 31%!) but Murray has done a pretty good job with Ottawa save for his 2007 draft was almost a complete washout, though Ben Blood is still a prospect , so there's hope for it yet. BEST DRAFT: The 2008 draft was Murray's high-mark over the time period. Five of his six 2008 draft picks played in the NHL (Emil Sandin, a 7th rounder, was the lone player to not play in the NHL). He got Patrick Wiercioch (103 GP) in the 2nd round, Zack Smith (282 GP) in the 3rd round, Andre Petersson (1 NHL GP traded to Anaheim still in AHL) in the 4th round as well as Derek Grant (25 GP, still in Ottawa's system) and Mark Borowiecki (21 GP, still in Ottawa's system) in the 5th round. BEST PICK: It's either the aforementioned Smith (282 GP for a 3rd round, 79th overall pick) who has out-pointed first rounder forwards from that year including Joe Colborne, Mattias Tedenby and Zach Boychuk or Robin Lehner. I'm going to go with Lehner because he was taken 46th overall and has played in more NHL games than any other goalie drafted in the 2009 draft (In fact more than any other 2 goalies in the draft combined) and has a decent shot at being a #1 goalie in the not-too-distant future.
12. LOU LAMIORELLO, New Jersey (5 Drafts, 24%, 33 Total Picks, 8 Gems): I didn't really notice Lamoriello at first because he's not near the top in either Percentage or Total Gems but then I noticed that he was one of only 4 GMs to turn up a Gem in every draft but also that he drafted in the back ten of the draft in every year of the analysis. BEST DRAFT: Despite turning up a Gem in every draft, most of Lamoriello's drafts are one pick drafts (Gelinas is the only surefire NHLer of 2009, Henrique in 2008, Halishchuk in 2007, Zharkhov in 2006 until he went back to Russia). 2005 was the only draft where he turned up two surefire NHLers so it's basically the best draft by default. In addition to Jeff Frazee and Patrick Davis (who played 10 NHL games between them) Lamoriello was able to get 185-game defenceman Mark Fraser 84th overall and 242-game defenceman Mark Fayne at 155th overall. BEST PICK: It has to be Adam Henrique. One of only two players in the Top 20 of scoring for 2008 picks taken outside of the 2nd round (Jason Demers being the other) Henrique has a solid 110 points in 194 GP.
To determine what exactly constitutes what we'll call -for the purposes of this analysis and my own aversion to having to type out something longer - successful non First Round picks as 'Gems'. I did an easy-peasy formula by which I calculated the average amount of Games Played by round, then included every pick who played more than the average number of Games Played and designated him as a 'Gem' (In some cases, I fudged the numbers up a little for goaltenders as there aren't nearly as many games available for them, so Dustin Tokarski who, after his playoff run, is likely to be in the NHL next year and therefore I included him as a Gem even though he was a few games short). There are shortcomings with the formula, for one, it makes no differential between a sure-fire top of the round 2nd rounder or a 7th rounder who plays a handful of games and, for another, a team like Atlanta or the NY Islanders is much more likely to throw their prospects a few games down the stretch than the Detroit Red Wings. But, it's a quick and dirty, very unscientific look at something that isn't often discussed.
I'm going to start today with the Best GMs at selecting Gems outside of the first round over this time period.
01. DAVID POILE, Nashville (5 Drafts, 33%, 33 Total Picks, 11 Gems): I noted that Poile, whose name came up on the list of the Worst GMs for selecting first round picks over this time period, had made a lot of his name as drafting guru by finding later round picks and Poile proved that here, with what I determined to be the impressive showing. Though his percentage is a little bit lower at 33% than the guys after him, he selected more Gems (11) than any other GM over this time period (Though, admittedly, he ranked third for most picks over the time period, as well). BEST DRAFT: Even though the 2005 draft turned up more established players in Cody Franson and Patric Hornqvist, I think, in time, the 2009 Draft will be recognized as Poile's masterpiece. First he nabbed forward prospects Taylor Beck and Michael Latta (Since traded) in the 3rd round, he got Craig Smith (100 points in 195 games so far) in the 4th round along with Mattias Ekholm (Who looks like he's going to stick with Nashville for the forseeable future) and nabbed Gabriel Bourque (151 GP) in the 5th round. This has the potential to get even better for Poile as 2nd rounder Zach Budish is just in his first year of pro hockey. BEST PICK: It has to be the aforementioned Hornqvist. Poile not only got the 636 GP, 106 Goal, 216 Point forward in the 7th round but he got him with the last pick, 230th overall! Hornqvist has more goals scored than all but 6 players taken ahead of him, four of whom are first-round picks.
02. DOUG WILSON, San Jose (5 Drafts, 33%, 30 Total Picks, 10 Gems): Wilson came in 2nd for total Gems drafted with 10 but he also had 30 picks over the time frame which puts him at 33%. He's hurt a little by his 2009 draft which has only produced 9 NHL games with 5 draft picks. This could improve next year as Phil Varone played some games with Buffalo this year (He is the only player to make in the NHL so far) and could play more next year while Taylor Doherty might be penciled in as the Sharks #7 d-man to start next season. BEST DRAFT: Wilson's 2007 draft is notable for how much Wilson was able to get out of so little. With 4 picks through the 6th and 7th round, he managed to choose three players that would go on to play 100+ NHL games. He got Nick Bonino at 173rd (6th round), then Justin Braun at 201st (7th) and Frazer McLaren at 203rd (7th). Wilson's draft would have been even more spectacular if he hadn't whiffed on a pair of 3rd round goalies (Tyson Sexsmith and Timo Pielmeier) and had opted for the likes of Joakim Andersson and Alec Martinez who both went within 12 picks of the two goaltenders. BEST PICK: The fact that he's a high second rounder (35th) might possibly make the selection of Marc-Edouard Vlasic less impressive than nabbing a 200+ GP defenceman in the 7th round (Wilson did it twice: Justin Braun in 2007 and Jason Demers in 2008!) to some, but the sheer fact that Vlasic has played 600 NHL games, won a Gold Medal with Canada in these past Olympics and has played more NHL games than every other player from 2005, save for Anze Kopitar (Who bests him by 4) and is probably a Top 10 defenceman in the NHL makes him Wilson's best pick. The fact that he was the fourteenth defenceman drafted in 2005 is truly staggering (Behind the likes of Sasha Pokulok, Matt Pelech, Joe Finley (Washington had two cracks at him and chose someone else both times! Both totaling less than 21 NHL GP!), and Vladimir Mihalik!).
03. JOHN FERGUSON JR., Toronto (3 Drafts, 41%, 17 Total Picks, 7 Gems): I'd always suspected Ferguson, as a former scout, had a solid draft record but even I (One of his biggest supporters) had no idea it was this good! Ferguson Jr. over this period drafted a Gem outside of the first round 41% of the time which is tied for the highest mark of any GM, besides Garth Snow (who had the same percentage, but drafted two more Gems than Ferguson, but with 5 less picks) who participated in at least 3 drafts. BEST DRAFT: Though his two best picks (Detailed below) came in 2005 and 2007, JFJ's best draft is his 2006 draft. Every player he selected in that draft played in the NHL except for 6th rounder Tyler Ruegsegger. He got Nikolai Kulemin in the 2nd round (421 GP, 195 PTS), James Reimer (140 GP) in the 4th along with NHL/AHL tweener Korbinian Holzer (24 GP), Viktor Stalberg (313 GP, 122 PTS) in the 6th rounder, then picked Leo Komarov (42 NHL GP, likely to be more as he's possibly returning to the NHL next year) also in the 6th with the 180th pick overall. That's 4 NHL regulars with 6 picks outside of the first round. Nothing wrong with that. BEST PICK: Ferguson scored twice in the 7th round with selecting defenders as he got 394 GP d-man Anton Stralman in that round in 2005, but his biggest score is definitely landing current Leaf Carl Gunnarsson 194th overall in 2007. Gunnarsson has actually played in more NHL games (304) than every other defenceman selected in 2007's draft, save for Top 5 pick Karl Alzner, and has played more games than 199 other players chosen in that draft.
04. GARTH SNOW, NY Islanders (3 Drafts, 41%, 22 Total Picks, 9 Gems): Now, you can mark an asterisk next to Snow for a few reasons, if you wish: #1. He often drafted very high over his 3 drafts as Isles GM during this time period, so he's picking from fringe first rounders at the beginning of the 2nd round; #2. His players are likely to play more games because the Islanders weren't very good over this time frame and #3. He was only GM for three drafts. But, putting that aside, he still rates highly based on the fact that he had a success rate of 41% (tied with John Ferguson Jr.) which lead all GMs with a minimum of three drafts under their control. BEST DRAFT: Despite the fact that every single player he chose in 2009 making the NHL for at least one game, no draft impacted Snow's record quite like the 2008 draft where he picked Travis Hamonic in the 2nd round, Matt Donovan in the 4th round, and Kevin Poulin and Matt Martin in the 5th round. Imagine if he'd passed up Corey Trivino at #36 and nabbed Roman Josi who went two picks later! BEST PICK: Interestingly, Snow's best pick of 2008, and best over this period, was probably a player he decided after two years not to tender a contract: Jared Spurgeon. That fall, he attended Minnesota's rookie camp and won himself a contract. Spurgeon has now played 229 games in the NHL and he was a 6th round pick, 156th overall!
05. DARCY REGIER, Buffalo (5 Drafts, 28%, 32 Total Picks, 9 Gems): Regier's tenure in Buffalo is not remembered with fondness because of the futility of his team over the last few years but he was actually a really succesful drafter. He had the 3rd highest percentage (28%) of GMs to oversee all 5 drafts over this period and is one of only 4 GMs to choose Gem in every one of the 5 drafts (Ken Holland, Glen Sather, and Lou Lamiorello being the others). BEST DRAFT: Despite these solid numbers, Regier didn't really have any outstanding drafts. 2009 yielded Brayden McNabb and Nick Foligno, 2008 turned up Tyler Ennis, and 2006 turned up Mike Weber and Jhonas Enroth, but 2005 would probably be the best. In the 2005 draft, despite whiffing badly on his 2nd rounder (Philip Gogulla never played in the NHL, three picks later Vancouver snagged Mason Raymond), Regier was able to add 74 NHL GP (Marc-Andre Gragnani at #87), 349 GP (Chris Butler at #96) and 269 GP (Nathan Gerbe at #142). BEST PICK: One could make a case that it's probably Butler, but I''m going to err on the side of potential and go with Marcus Foligno here. Foligno, nabbed in the fourth round with the 104th overall pick, has really come out of nowhere to look like a solid NHL power forward in waiting. Despite the fact that he never reached the 60 point plateau in the OHL, his first season in the AHL so him hit 39 and he's had seasons of 13 (in 14 GP), 18 (in 47 GP) and 19 points (in 74 GP) in his three seasons in the NHL. I think when Buffalo surrounds him with some more talent, we might see his point totals go up.
06. DOUG ARMSTRONG, Dallas (3 Drafts, 33%, 18 Total Picks, 6 Gems): When Armstrong was let go as Stars GM in 2008 to be replaced by the short-lived combo of Les Jackson and Brett Hull (Who ran 1 draft turning up 1 Gem in 5 picks), he actually had one of the better draft records of NHL GMs. Though he only had 18 total picks, 6 of those were Gems. BEST DRAFT: The 2005 draft saw Armstrong net future 40 goal/80 point player James Neal with a second round pick. He also managed to snag Richard Clune in the 3rd round (119 NHL GP) and then Tom Wandell in the 5th (229 NHL GP). Additionally, of his other three picks, Perttu Lindgren (3rd), Matt Watkins (5th) and Pat McGann (7th), the former two both played a handful of games meaning that 6 of the 7 players he drafted that year saw some NHL time. BEST PICK: His best pick is one of the best picks anyone made over this timeframe, that being Jamie Benn in the 5th round, 129th overall, out of the BCHL. Benn, a Canadian Olympic Gold medallist, has 116 goals and 272 points in 344 NHL games.
07. DEAN LOMBARDI, Los Angeles (4 Drafts, 28%, 29 Total Picks, 8 Gems): Lombardi took over for Dave Taylor in 2006 and compiled a very good draft record despite whiffing on all 7 non first round picks of his 2006 draft (Only Jeff Zatkoff with 20 GP has played in the NHL). BEST DRAFT: There's little question it has to be his 2007 draft. Lombardi started by getting Oscar Moller at #52 (He played 87 NHL GP before returning to Sweden and the Kings are rumored to be interested in bringing him back to North America this summer), then snagged Wayne Simmonds (449 NHL GP and a key piece used to acquire Mike Richards) at #61, Alec Martinez (203 GP) at #95 and Dwight King (157 GP) at #109. Two of those picks are important cogs on the Kings current Stanley Cup run and a third was used to acquire another key piece. BEST PICK: Lobardi got a lot of NHL games out of a lot of places (Loktionov's 155 GP at #123 in 2008, Jordan Nolan's 134 GP at #186 in 2009). But his best pick might well be a high 2nd rounder, 32nd overall, which is where he nabbed Slava Voynov in the 2008 draft. Voynov plays big minutes for the Kings and is a crucial player on their blueline.
08. KEN HOLLAND, Detroit (5 Drafts, 26%, 31 Total Picks, 8 Gems): Detroit and Holland have a reputation at unearthing late round gems, largely due to their European scouting, but credit should be given also to their North American scouting who turned up an equal amount of Gems over this stretch. BEST DRAFT: Holland's best draft is interesting because it produced two players that will be over the 300 NHL GP mark early next season but are both North Americans. Getting Justin Abdelkader at 42nd overall of the 2nd round was a great pick (327 GP) but getting Darren Helm at 132nd overall for 291 GP is even more impressive. Additionally, Mattias Ritola played 43 games before returning to Europe. The Red Wings were also high on 5th rounder Johan Ryno, but he lasted just 12 games in the AHL before getting homesick and returning to Sweden. BEST PICK: Holland has great picks all over the place including the aforementioned Abdelkader and Helm, as well as Shawn Matthias 47th in 2006, Joakim Andersson at 88th in 2007, and Tomas Tatar at 60th in 2009, but his best pick, based on a small sample size, looks to be snagging Gustav Nyquist 121st overall in 2008. Nyquist, who went on a tear this season with Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg and Johan Franzen out putting up 48 points in just 57 games. If he can bottle that pace up, he will have a very successful NHL career ahead.
09. GLEN SATHER, NY Rangers (5 Drafts, 26%, 31 Total Picks, 8 Gems): As I mentioned in the First Rounder discussion, Sather has a reputation as a trading/signing GM but his prowess at the draft table is often undervalued, but here he is again turning up on a 'Best of' list in regards to drafting. As mentioned above, Sather is one of only 4 GMs in this analysis who was able to draft a Gem in every single draft over the five year period. BEST DRAFT: It has to be 2008. In 2008 Sather was able to secure 537 NHL GP out of his 6 non-First Round picks. Two of those players have gone on two very succesful NHL careers, Dale Weise was a star in the playoffs for Montreal and with 179 GP after being selected at #111 he's defied the odds. Even better, though, is Derek Stepan, nabbed at #51 who has 197 points in 294 NHL games. BEST PICK: Artem Anisimov with 165 points in 360 GP is close, but is has to be Stepan who is fifth in points for 2008 draft picks (Trailing only first rounders Steven Stamkos, Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty and Jordan Eberle) despite being only 12th in NHL GP.
10. PAUL HOLMGREN, Philadelphia (3 Drafts, 31%, 16 Total Picks, 5 Gems): Holmgren ran the Flyers last three drafts and while he wasn't able to grab a franchise forward in the first round and forget his name like his predecessor Bobby Clarke had done, Holmgren actually did very okay for himself in nabbing Gems as just shy of one-third of hits non-First Rounders were Gems. That said, a lot of Homlgren's Gems were picks who played a few games in notoriously bad rounds (For instance Oliver Lauridsen's 15 NHL GP has him 3rd for his round in 2009, and Marc-Andre Bourdon's 45 GP puts him 6th for his round in 2008). BEST DRAFT: Holmgren's best draft is likely his 2008 draft in which 3 of his 4 non-First Rounders all have played in the NHL. The aforementioned Bourdon was looking like an NHL regular before concussions derailed him, he finally got back into regular AHL hockey at the end of last season, so he could have more ahead of him. Sixth rounder Zac Rinaldo has put up 165 NHL games while 7th rounder Joacim Eriksson has seen one game of NHL action but looks poised to be Vancouver's #3 goalie for the forseeable future. BEST PICK: Right now it's Rinaldo, the agitator who has exceeded all expectations by playing in 165 NHL games while piling up 470 penalty minutes. But if Patrick Maroon (6th round, 161st in 2007) continues his ascent from this past season (29 points in 62 games, an additional 7 in 13 playoff games), he could very well be the best Gem of Holmgren's tenure.
11. BRYAN MURRAY, Ottawa (3 Drafts, 29%, 17 Total Picks, 5 Gems): I've always thought it was weird the way John Muckler, as GM, lead the Senators to the Stanley Cup finals only to get fired a couple weeks later and replaced by Murray (For the record, Muckler, over two drafts actually had a higher Gem percentage than Murray with 31%!) but Murray has done a pretty good job with Ottawa save for his 2007 draft was almost a complete washout, though Ben Blood is still a prospect , so there's hope for it yet. BEST DRAFT: The 2008 draft was Murray's high-mark over the time period. Five of his six 2008 draft picks played in the NHL (Emil Sandin, a 7th rounder, was the lone player to not play in the NHL). He got Patrick Wiercioch (103 GP) in the 2nd round, Zack Smith (282 GP) in the 3rd round, Andre Petersson (1 NHL GP traded to Anaheim still in AHL) in the 4th round as well as Derek Grant (25 GP, still in Ottawa's system) and Mark Borowiecki (21 GP, still in Ottawa's system) in the 5th round. BEST PICK: It's either the aforementioned Smith (282 GP for a 3rd round, 79th overall pick) who has out-pointed first rounder forwards from that year including Joe Colborne, Mattias Tedenby and Zach Boychuk or Robin Lehner. I'm going to go with Lehner because he was taken 46th overall and has played in more NHL games than any other goalie drafted in the 2009 draft (In fact more than any other 2 goalies in the draft combined) and has a decent shot at being a #1 goalie in the not-too-distant future.
12. LOU LAMIORELLO, New Jersey (5 Drafts, 24%, 33 Total Picks, 8 Gems): I didn't really notice Lamoriello at first because he's not near the top in either Percentage or Total Gems but then I noticed that he was one of only 4 GMs to turn up a Gem in every draft but also that he drafted in the back ten of the draft in every year of the analysis. BEST DRAFT: Despite turning up a Gem in every draft, most of Lamoriello's drafts are one pick drafts (Gelinas is the only surefire NHLer of 2009, Henrique in 2008, Halishchuk in 2007, Zharkhov in 2006 until he went back to Russia). 2005 was the only draft where he turned up two surefire NHLers so it's basically the best draft by default. In addition to Jeff Frazee and Patrick Davis (who played 10 NHL games between them) Lamoriello was able to get 185-game defenceman Mark Fraser 84th overall and 242-game defenceman Mark Fayne at 155th overall. BEST PICK: It has to be Adam Henrique. One of only two players in the Top 20 of scoring for 2008 picks taken outside of the 2nd round (Jason Demers being the other) Henrique has a solid 110 points in 194 GP.
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