Caley's Probability Draft!

I think Mock Drafts are fun, albeit particularly unfruitful pursuits. So, for the second year, I present my Probability Draft. Going by a combination of General Manager tendencies toward leagues, organization tendencies toward leagues, and organizational trends in drafting positionally in the first and second as well as drafting for height over the last ten years, I've assigned the player that best fits what the team has done in the past. Everyone here is referred to by their league of origin. For instance, Timo Meier is a QMJHL forward, his country of origin doesn't enter into the discussion.

01. Edmonton: No brainer: CONNOR MCDAVID

02. Buffalo: No brainer: JACK EICHEL.

03. Arizona: Four of the Coyotes first rounders since Don Maloney became GM in 2007 have been from the OHL and three of those are OHL forwards. Of the 8 forwards chosen by the Coyotes in the last ten years, 5 of them were 6'2" or taller, with only two being below 6'00". So, all signs point to Arizona selecting: DYLAN STROME.

04. Toronto: Toronto goes to the OHL and WHL more often than any other league in the first round (Twice each) and never to the NCAA in either of the first two rounds. Despite Toronto's reputation for drafting big guys, one-quarter of the forwards they've taken in the first round were forwards under 6'00". Toronto's selection is: MITCH MARNER.

05. Carolina: Though Carolina has never taken a player from the NCAA in the first round, they have tapped the league in the second round, and Hanifin is too good to pass up here. He also lands right in Carolina's wheelhouse for first round defencemen, in that he lines up over 6'1 which is the Hurricanes average. NOAH HANIFIN

06. New Jersey: New GM Ray Shero has a history of going to the WHL for defenders in the first round during his Pittsburgh tenure, and he'll go to that well here taking Brandon defenceman: IVAN PROVOROV.

07. Philadelphia: The Flyers either go with big forwards (6'3") or fairly small forwards in the first round (5'11") over the last ten years. Philadelphia also favours OHL forwards in the first round, leaving them two options, but, surprisingly, the Flyers have not drafted a forward over 6'3" during this time frame so the Flyers tap: PAVEL ZACHA.

08. Columbus: Though most are tying the Blue Jackets to a defender here because of their recent admission of weakness at the position, GM Jarno Kekalainen has never taken a defenceman in the first round over his two drafts and Columbus, as an organization, has only taken a defender in the first round twice in the last ten years. Columbus likes to go to the WHL for forwards, and they draft all their first round forwards in the 5'11-6'2" range. Therefore, the Blue Jackets select: MATT BARZAL.

09. San Jose: Though the Sharks like to go to the WHL more than any other league in the first round, they also like to go with OHL forwards almost as often. But, San Jose has never drafted a forward over 6'2, so the Sharks surprise a little by tapping the OHL, but selecting: TRAVIS KONECNY.

10. Colorado: While Colorado never goes over 6'2" at the forward position, they do overwhelmingly love to draft OHL forwards (5 of their last 8 first rounders are from the OHL). Therefore the Avalanche go with: LAWSON CROUSE.

11. Florida: The Panthers love to go to the USHL in the first two rounds of the draft, tending more toward drafting them in the second round than the first, but they have chosen out a defender out of the USHL in the first before and do so again here: ZACH WERENSKI.

12. Dallas: The Dallas Stars tend to go with OHL forwards and WHL defencemen in the first round, but there aren't any really in the running here. In his first two drafts, GM Jim Nill hasn't been afraid of going outside of North America for his first rounder, so he does so here: MIKKO RANTANEN.

13. Los Angeles: Kings GM Dean Lombardi has twice gone to the USHL in the first round, and the Kings as an organization go to 6'1 forwards more than anywhere else, so: KYLE CONNOR.

14. Boston: The Bruins have gone to the OHL more than any league over the years, but a new GM decides to break with tradition and go to another league. The Bruins like to nab forwards in the 5'11-6'00 range and decide to for COLIN WHITE

15. Calgary: The Flames love to go to the OHL and WHL in the first round (10 of their 17 first and second rounders came from either of those two leagues). The Flames also aren't afraid of going under six feet, doing so twice in the first round, and they do so here selecting: NICK MERKLEY.

16. Edmonton: The Oilers love to go with WHL forwards in the first round, and they do so here, picking a guy who falls right into their usual forward range of 5'11 to 6'1 (7 of their 9 first round forwards are in this range) and a guy with Oiler bloodlines: JAKE DEBRUSK

17. Winnipeg: As an organization (Even going back to the Thrasher days), the Jets love to go with OHL forwards and QMJHL forwards (Makes up half of those forward selections, combined). They also draft 6'1 forwards more than any other positional/height combination, so they select last year's first rounder, Nikolaj Ehlers'linemate: TIMO MEIER.

18. Ottawa: In the first two rounds, the Senators go Sweden more than any other location, save the OHL, and they're not afraid to do so here, selecting: OLIVER KYLINGTON.

19. Detroit: I've seen a lot of mocks tie the Wings to a Swedish player here because of their history of success from the country, but Detroit has not gone outside of North America once in the last ten years. Detroit has gone to the QMJHL for a forward once in their last six choices, and they do so again here with a player who falls right into their forward height range (All three of their first round forward selections have come int he 6'0" to 6'3"range): EVGENI SVECHNIKOV

20. Minnesota: The Wild go the WHL more than any other league in the first two rounds (5 times) and they like to draft forwards with size (3 of their 7 first round forwards were 6'3"or bigger), so they fill that mold by drafting: PAUL BITTNER.

21. Buffalo: Buffalo goes more to the WHL in the first round than anywhere else (4 times) and they like to draft big defenders (3 of their 5 d-men drafted in the first round were 6'4 or larger) so the Sabres grab: BRANDON CARLO.

22. Washington: Of the 13 first rounders over the last ten years, the Washington Capitals have taken a forward out of Sweden a whopping six times. No reason to suggest they'll change that approach here: JOEL ERIKSSON EK.

23. Vancouver: I've seen a lot of mocks giving the Canucks a defenceman here, but Vancouver has only felt confident drafting a defenceman in the first round once in the last ten years. Of those 10 first round drafted forwards, 5 came from the OHL and another 3 from the WHL. With no OHL forwards really landing in this range, the Canucks go with a WHL forward that falls right in their preferred forward height range of 5'11 to 6'0"and nab: JANSEN HARKINS.

24. Toronto: The Leafs have shown a willingness to take first rounders from outside of the North American before (They did so 3 times in the last 10 years) and have also taken a goalie in the first round before. Here they do both of those things selecting: ILYA SAMSONOV.

25. Winnipeg: Though the Jets don't typically take QMJHL d-men in the first round (None in the last ten years, at least), they have taken one in the second round, so they take a chance on one here, and nab: JAKUB ZBORIL.

26. Montreal: Of the Canadiens last 10 first round picks, a whopping 6 of them were drafted either out of the USHL or US high school system. The Canadiens do so here picking up the fast rising: JACK ROSLOVIC.

27. Anaheim: The Ducks are bullish on the OHL, with 5 of their last 12 first rounders being from the league. They're not afraid of picking a sub-six-foot defender in the first round and grab: VINCE DUNN.

28. Tampa Bay: Though no GM has had as much success drafting out of Russia recently as Yzerman, he's only gone to Russia once in the first round and that was for a goalie. Yzerman, and the Lightning organization, are much more confident going to the OHL with four of their last 12 first rounders coming from there. They're also not afraid of drafting under-sized d-men, so here they tap: MITCH VANDE SOMPEL

29. Philadelphia: Somewhat surprisingly, the Flyers go to the QMJHL in the first round more than any other league, twice selecting forwards and once a defenceman. They do so again here, selecting: DANIEL SPRONG.

30. Arizona: Next to the OHL, where they went with their first pick, Arizona is also fond of going to the WHL in the first round (3 times). They do so again here, with the last pick of the first round selecting: NOAH JUULSEN.

SECOND ROUND

31. Buffalo: The Sabres like to go with OHL forwards in the second round, and they favour forwards who are 6'1/6'2, so fitting the bill is ZACH SENYSHYN.

32. Arizona: The Coyotes like to go OHL forward in the second round (Haven't taken a d-man in the second round in 10 years), and they like to go big, so here they nab: GRAHAM KNOTT.

33. Edmonton: The Oilers and Chiarelli are both unafraid of going outside North America in the second round, and the Oilers really favouri big defencemen in the second round (Three of the four they've chosen have been 6'3"or taller), so here they go with: GABRIEL CARLSSON.

34. Columbus: Blue Jackets are willing to go all over in the second round, but often end up in the US system. They go there here: BROCK BOESER.

35. Carolina: The Hurricanes go mostly to the OHL or USHL in the second round, and never the QMJHL, so they go with the USHL here and select: CHRISTIAN FISCHER.

36. New Jersey: While the Devils tend to go for USHL defencemen in the second round, there aren't really any on the radar here, so they'll go to their next most-visited league in the second round: The QMJHL. When the Devils go forward in the second round, they're always in the 6'1"-6'2" range, so New Jersey selects: DENNIS YAN.

37. Boston: The Bruins love to go to the OHL in the second round for forwards. Every forward but one that Boston has selected in the second round lands in the 5'10 to 6'1 range and the Bruins use that range to nab: MITCHELL STEPHENS.

38. Columbus: Though Columbus has shown a preference for OHL forwards in the second round, GM Jarno Keklalainen has gone with a defenceman both times with his second round picks, and I think he goes there now: JEREMY ROY.

39. San Jose: Sharks have shown a recent penchant for Swiss players, and likes to tab defenders in the second round, they scratch both those itches: JONAS SIEGENTHALER.

40. Colorado: The Avalanche like to go goalie in the second round, having done so three times in their last ten drafts. It seems like as good a time as any to go back there: MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD.

41. New Jersey: The Devils have tapped Russia before in the second round, and they like to draft second round forwards measuring at 6'2" and they do so again: DENIS GURIANOV.

42. Ottawa: Senators like to frequent Sweden in the second round, taking a forward, defender and goalie in that round. The Sens do that and nab JACOB LARSSON.

43. Los Angeles: The Kings like to grab players who are supposed to go higher after they've dropped, and they're unafraid of going QMJHL: THOMAS CHABOT.

44. Tampa Bay: The Lightning go all over the board in the second round, but here they go with a player from the Czech Republic: somewhere they've gone more than anywhere else in the second round: MICHAEL SPACEK.

45. Calgary: The Flames go all over in the second round, though most frequently to the WHL. They do so here nabbing big winger RYAN GROPP.

46. Pittsburgh: Penguins GM Jim Rutherford and Pittsburgh's scouting staff both like to go to the US High School system in the draft: WILL BORGEN.

47. Winnipeg: The Jets are bullish on WHL players in the second round. The Jets nab fast-rising winger AUSTIN WAGNER.

48. Ottawa: The Senators have gone to the QMJHL in the second round before, and do so again: FILIP CHLAPIK.

49. Dallas: Current GM Jim Nill and the Dallas organization like to go to Sweden in the second round: FILIP AHL.

50. Minnesota: The Wild go to the WHL for forwards most in the second round, but next to that is the QMJHL and USHL. They have a penchant for big forwards in the second round (In ten years, none chosen under 6'1"), so they fit that profile with mammoth: GABRIEL GAGNE.

51. Buffalo: Next to the OHL, where Buffalo has already gone this round, the Sabres also like to go to the QMJHL in the second round. They go there again here, grabbing: ANTHONY BEAUVILLIER.

52. Calgary: The Flames are comfortable taking a goalie in the second round, they like select big goalies (None in the first two rounds in 10 years under 6'2). They go to the QMJHL and: CALLUM BOOTH.

53. Calgary: With two picks back-to-back, the Flames can afford to gamble a little and they do so here, going again for a WHL forward, with a little bit of baggage and a lot of grit: JESSE GABRIELLE.

54. Chicago: The Stanley Cup champs like to hit up the US system and also like big forwards (3 second rounders were 6'3 or taller) and they fulfill that need with: JORDAN GREENAWAY.

55. Nashville: The Predators almost always go to the OHL or WHL in the second round, and they go for forwards 70% of the time in that round: ANTHONY CIRELLI.

56. St. Louis: The Blues like to hit up the WHL in the second round with a preference for forwards which gives them a chance to snag: ADAM MUSIL.

57. Edmonton: The Oilers haven't had a lot of sucess going to the QMJHL, and neither they nor the Oilers ever select goalies in the second round. What they are familiar and successful with is drafting out of the WHL where they nab toolsy: BRENDAN GUHLE.

58. Columbus: The Blue Jackets love to go to the OHL more than anywhere else in the second round, so they go: TRAVIS DERMOTT

59. NY Rangers: The Rangers have twice gone for goalies in the second round, but they like big goalies, so the choice is: DANIEL VLADAR.

60. Arizona: The Coyotes have gone for a goalie twice in the second round, one to the QMJHL, so they go that route again: SAMUEL MONTEMBEAULT.

61. Philadelphia: The Flyers aren't afraid of going to Russia for second rounders, they've done it before, and they like big forwards: ALEXANDER DERGACHYOV.