Thursday, June 12, 2014

Mining Gems Outside the First Round, Who's the Best GM?

I thought that, after posting my findings on which GMs excelled and failed at drafting first round picks over the period of 2005-2009 that I'd do another analysis, this time of which GMs excelled at choosing players outside of the first round.

To determine what exactly constitutes what we'll call -for the purposes of this analysis and my own aversion to having to type out something longer - successful non First Round picks as 'Gems'. I did an easy-peasy formula by which I calculated the average amount of Games Played by round, then included every pick who played more than the average number of Games Played and designated him as a 'Gem' (In some cases, I fudged the numbers up a little for goaltenders as there aren't nearly as many games available for them, so Dustin Tokarski who, after his playoff run, is likely to be in the NHL next year and therefore I included him as a Gem even though he was a few games short). There are shortcomings with the formula, for one, it makes no differential between a sure-fire top of the round 2nd rounder or a 7th rounder who plays a handful of games and, for another, a team like Atlanta or the NY Islanders is much more likely to throw their prospects a few games down the stretch than the Detroit Red Wings. But, it's a quick and dirty, very unscientific look at something that isn't often discussed.

I'm going to start today with the Best GMs at selecting Gems outside of the first round over this time period.

01. DAVID POILE, Nashville (5 Drafts, 33%, 33 Total Picks, 11 Gems): I noted that Poile, whose name came up on the list of the Worst GMs for selecting first round picks over this time period, had made a lot of his name as drafting guru by finding later round picks and Poile proved that here, with what I determined to be the impressive showing. Though his percentage is a little bit lower at 33% than the guys after him, he selected more Gems (11) than any other GM over this time period (Though, admittedly, he ranked third for most picks over the time period, as well). BEST DRAFT: Even though the 2005 draft turned up more established players in Cody Franson and Patric Hornqvist, I think, in time, the 2009 Draft will be recognized as Poile's masterpiece. First he nabbed forward prospects Taylor Beck and Michael Latta (Since traded) in the 3rd round, he got Craig Smith (100 points in 195 games so far) in the 4th round along with Mattias Ekholm (Who looks like he's going to stick with Nashville for the forseeable future) and nabbed Gabriel Bourque (151 GP) in the 5th round. This has the potential to get even better for Poile as 2nd rounder Zach Budish is just in his first year of pro hockey. BEST PICK: It has to be the aforementioned Hornqvist. Poile not only got the 636 GP, 106 Goal, 216 Point forward in the 7th round but he got him with the last pick, 230th overall! Hornqvist has more goals scored than all but 6 players taken ahead of him, four of whom are first-round picks.

02. DOUG WILSON, San Jose (5 Drafts, 33%, 30 Total Picks, 10 Gems): Wilson came in 2nd for total Gems drafted with 10 but he also had 30 picks over the time frame which puts him at 33%. He's hurt a little by his 2009 draft which has only produced 9 NHL games with 5 draft picks. This could improve next year as Phil Varone played some games with Buffalo this year (He is the only player to make in the NHL so far) and could play more next year while Taylor Doherty might be penciled in as the Sharks #7 d-man to start next season. BEST DRAFT: Wilson's 2007 draft is notable for how much Wilson was able to get out of so little. With 4 picks through the 6th and 7th round, he managed to choose three players that would go on to play 100+ NHL games. He got Nick Bonino at 173rd (6th round), then Justin Braun at 201st (7th) and Frazer McLaren at 203rd (7th). Wilson's draft would have been even more spectacular if he hadn't whiffed on a pair of 3rd round goalies (Tyson Sexsmith and Timo Pielmeier) and had opted for the likes of Joakim Andersson and Alec Martinez who both went within 12 picks of the two goaltenders. BEST PICK: The fact that he's a high second rounder (35th) might possibly make the selection of Marc-Edouard Vlasic less impressive than nabbing a 200+ GP defenceman in the 7th round (Wilson did it twice: Justin Braun in 2007 and Jason Demers in 2008!) to some, but the sheer fact that Vlasic has played 600 NHL games, won a Gold Medal with Canada in these past Olympics and has played more NHL games than every other player from 2005, save for Anze Kopitar (Who bests him by 4) and is probably a Top 10 defenceman in the NHL makes him Wilson's best pick. The fact that he was the fourteenth defenceman drafted in 2005 is truly staggering (Behind the likes of Sasha Pokulok, Matt Pelech, Joe Finley (Washington had two cracks at him and chose someone else both times! Both totaling less than 21 NHL GP!), and Vladimir Mihalik!).

03. JOHN FERGUSON JR., Toronto (3 Drafts, 41%, 17 Total Picks, 7 Gems): I'd always suspected Ferguson, as a former scout, had a solid draft record but even I (One of his biggest supporters) had no idea it was this good! Ferguson Jr. over this period drafted a Gem outside of the first round 41% of the time which is tied for the highest mark of any GM, besides Garth Snow (who had the same percentage, but drafted two more Gems than Ferguson, but with 5 less picks) who participated in at least 3 drafts. BEST DRAFT: Though his two best picks (Detailed below) came in 2005 and 2007, JFJ's best draft is his 2006 draft. Every player he selected in that draft played in the NHL except for 6th rounder Tyler Ruegsegger. He got Nikolai Kulemin in the 2nd round (421 GP, 195 PTS), James Reimer (140 GP) in the 4th along with NHL/AHL tweener Korbinian Holzer (24 GP), Viktor Stalberg (313 GP, 122 PTS) in the 6th rounder, then picked Leo Komarov (42 NHL GP, likely to be more as he's possibly returning to the NHL next year) also in the 6th with the 180th pick overall. That's 4 NHL regulars with 6 picks outside of the first round. Nothing wrong with that. BEST PICK: Ferguson scored twice in the 7th round with selecting defenders as he got 394 GP d-man Anton Stralman in that round in 2005, but his biggest score is definitely landing current Leaf Carl Gunnarsson 194th overall in 2007. Gunnarsson has actually played in more NHL games (304) than every other defenceman selected in 2007's draft, save for Top 5 pick Karl Alzner, and has played more games than 199 other players chosen in that draft.

04. GARTH SNOW, NY Islanders (3 Drafts, 41%, 22 Total Picks, 9 Gems): Now, you can mark an asterisk next to Snow for a few reasons, if you wish: #1. He often drafted very high over his 3 drafts as Isles GM during this time period, so he's picking from fringe first rounders at the beginning of the 2nd round; #2. His players are likely to play more games because the Islanders weren't very good over this time frame and #3. He was only GM for three drafts. But, putting that aside, he still rates highly based on the fact that he had a success rate of 41% (tied with John Ferguson Jr.) which lead all GMs with a minimum of three drafts under their control. BEST DRAFT: Despite the fact that every single player he chose in 2009 making the NHL for at least one game, no draft impacted Snow's record quite like the 2008 draft where he picked Travis Hamonic in the 2nd round, Matt Donovan in the 4th round, and Kevin Poulin and Matt Martin in the 5th round. Imagine if he'd passed up Corey Trivino at #36 and nabbed Roman Josi who went two picks later! BEST PICK: Interestingly, Snow's best pick of 2008, and best over this period, was probably a player he decided after two years not to tender a contract: Jared Spurgeon. That fall, he attended Minnesota's rookie camp and won himself a contract. Spurgeon has now played 229 games in the NHL and he was a 6th round pick, 156th overall!

05. DARCY REGIER, Buffalo (5 Drafts, 28%, 32 Total Picks, 9 Gems): Regier's tenure in Buffalo is not remembered with fondness because of the futility of his team over the last few years but he was actually a really succesful drafter. He had the 3rd highest percentage (28%) of GMs to oversee all 5 drafts over this period and is one of only 4 GMs to choose Gem in every one of the 5 drafts (Ken Holland, Glen Sather, and Lou Lamiorello being the others). BEST DRAFT: Despite these solid numbers, Regier didn't really have any outstanding drafts. 2009 yielded Brayden McNabb and Nick Foligno, 2008 turned up Tyler Ennis, and 2006 turned up Mike Weber and Jhonas Enroth, but 2005 would probably be the best. In the 2005 draft, despite whiffing badly on his 2nd rounder (Philip Gogulla never played in the NHL, three picks later Vancouver snagged Mason Raymond), Regier was able to add 74 NHL GP (Marc-Andre Gragnani at #87), 349 GP (Chris Butler at #96) and 269 GP (Nathan Gerbe at #142). BEST PICK: One could make a case that it's probably Butler, but I''m going to err on the side of potential and go with Marcus Foligno here. Foligno, nabbed in the fourth round with the 104th overall pick, has really come out of nowhere to look like a solid NHL power forward in waiting. Despite the fact that he never reached the 60 point plateau in the OHL, his first season in the AHL so him hit 39 and he's had seasons of 13 (in 14 GP), 18 (in 47 GP) and 19 points (in 74 GP) in his three seasons in the NHL. I think when Buffalo surrounds him with some more talent, we might see his point totals go up.

06. DOUG ARMSTRONG, Dallas (3 Drafts, 33%, 18 Total Picks, 6 Gems): When Armstrong was let go as Stars GM in 2008 to be replaced by the short-lived combo of Les Jackson and Brett Hull (Who ran 1 draft turning up 1 Gem in 5 picks), he actually had one of the better draft records of NHL GMs. Though he only had 18 total picks, 6 of those were Gems. BEST DRAFT: The 2005 draft saw Armstrong net future 40 goal/80 point player James Neal with a second round pick. He also managed to snag Richard Clune in the 3rd round (119 NHL GP) and then Tom Wandell in the 5th (229 NHL GP). Additionally, of his other three picks, Perttu Lindgren (3rd), Matt Watkins (5th) and Pat McGann (7th), the former two both played a handful of games meaning that 6 of the 7 players he drafted that year saw some NHL time. BEST PICK: His best pick is one of the best picks anyone made over this timeframe, that being Jamie Benn in the 5th round, 129th overall, out of the BCHL. Benn, a Canadian Olympic Gold medallist, has 116 goals and 272 points in 344 NHL games.

07. DEAN LOMBARDI, Los Angeles (4 Drafts, 28%, 29 Total Picks, 8 Gems): Lombardi took over for Dave Taylor in 2006 and compiled a very good draft record despite whiffing on all 7 non first round picks of his 2006 draft (Only Jeff Zatkoff with 20 GP has played in the NHL). BEST DRAFT: There's little question it has to be his 2007 draft. Lombardi started by getting Oscar Moller at #52 (He played 87 NHL GP before returning to Sweden and the Kings are rumored to be interested in bringing him back to North America this summer), then snagged Wayne Simmonds (449 NHL GP and a key piece used to acquire Mike Richards) at #61, Alec Martinez (203 GP) at #95 and Dwight King (157 GP) at #109. Two of those picks are important cogs on the Kings current Stanley Cup run and a third was used to acquire another key piece. BEST PICK: Lobardi got a lot of NHL games out of a lot of places (Loktionov's 155 GP at #123 in 2008, Jordan Nolan's 134 GP at #186 in 2009). But his best pick might well be a high 2nd rounder, 32nd overall, which is where he nabbed Slava Voynov in the 2008 draft. Voynov plays big minutes for the Kings and is a crucial player on their blueline.

08. KEN HOLLAND, Detroit (5 Drafts, 26%, 31 Total Picks, 8 Gems): Detroit and Holland have a reputation at unearthing late round gems, largely due to their European scouting, but credit should be given also to their North American scouting who turned up an equal amount of Gems over this stretch. BEST DRAFT: Holland's best draft is interesting because it produced two players that will be over the 300 NHL GP mark early next season but are both North Americans. Getting Justin Abdelkader at 42nd overall of the 2nd round was a great pick (327 GP) but getting Darren Helm at 132nd overall for 291 GP is even more impressive. Additionally, Mattias Ritola played 43 games before returning to Europe. The Red Wings were also high on 5th rounder Johan Ryno, but he lasted just 12 games in the AHL before getting homesick and returning to Sweden. BEST PICK: Holland has great picks all over the place including the aforementioned Abdelkader and Helm, as well as Shawn Matthias 47th in 2006, Joakim Andersson at 88th in 2007, and Tomas Tatar at 60th in 2009, but his best pick, based on a small sample size, looks to be snagging Gustav Nyquist 121st overall in 2008. Nyquist, who went on a tear this season with Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg and Johan Franzen out putting up 48 points in just 57 games. If he can bottle that pace up, he will have a very successful NHL career ahead.

09. GLEN SATHER, NY Rangers (5 Drafts, 26%, 31 Total Picks, 8 Gems): As I mentioned in the First Rounder discussion, Sather has a reputation as a trading/signing GM but his prowess at the draft table is often undervalued, but here he is again turning up on a 'Best of' list in regards to drafting. As mentioned above, Sather is one of only 4 GMs in this analysis who was able to draft a Gem in every single draft over the five year period. BEST DRAFT: It has to be 2008. In 2008 Sather was able to secure 537 NHL GP out of his 6 non-First Round picks. Two of those players have gone on two very succesful NHL careers, Dale Weise was a star in the playoffs for Montreal and with 179 GP after being selected at #111 he's defied the odds. Even better, though, is Derek Stepan, nabbed at #51 who has 197 points in 294 NHL games. BEST PICK: Artem Anisimov with 165 points in 360 GP is close, but is has to be Stepan who is fifth in points for 2008 draft picks (Trailing only first rounders Steven Stamkos, Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty and Jordan Eberle) despite being only 12th in NHL GP.

10. PAUL HOLMGREN, Philadelphia (3 Drafts, 31%, 16 Total Picks, 5 Gems): Holmgren ran the Flyers last three drafts and while he wasn't able to grab a franchise forward in the first round and forget his name like his predecessor Bobby Clarke had done, Holmgren actually did very okay for himself in nabbing Gems as just shy of one-third of hits non-First Rounders were Gems. That said, a lot of Homlgren's Gems were picks who played a few games in notoriously bad rounds (For instance Oliver Lauridsen's 15 NHL GP has him 3rd for his round in 2009, and Marc-Andre Bourdon's 45 GP puts him 6th for his round in 2008). BEST DRAFT: Holmgren's best draft is likely his 2008 draft in which 3 of his 4 non-First Rounders all have played in the NHL. The aforementioned Bourdon was looking like an NHL regular before concussions derailed him, he finally got back into regular AHL hockey at the end of last season, so he could have more ahead of him. Sixth rounder Zac Rinaldo has put up 165 NHL games while 7th rounder Joacim Eriksson has seen one game of NHL action but looks poised to be Vancouver's #3 goalie for the forseeable future. BEST PICK: Right now it's Rinaldo, the agitator who has exceeded all expectations by playing in 165 NHL games while piling up 470 penalty minutes. But if Patrick Maroon (6th round, 161st in 2007) continues his ascent from this past season (29 points in 62 games, an additional 7 in 13 playoff games), he could very well be the best Gem of Holmgren's tenure.

11. BRYAN MURRAY, Ottawa (3 Drafts, 29%, 17 Total Picks, 5 Gems): I've always thought it was weird the way John Muckler, as GM, lead the Senators to the Stanley Cup finals only to get fired a couple weeks later and replaced by Murray (For the record, Muckler, over two drafts actually had a higher Gem percentage than Murray with 31%!) but Murray has done a pretty good job with Ottawa save for his 2007 draft was almost a complete washout, though Ben Blood is still a prospect , so there's hope for it yet. BEST DRAFT: The 2008 draft was Murray's high-mark over the time period. Five of his six 2008 draft picks played in the NHL (Emil Sandin, a 7th rounder, was the lone player to not play in the NHL). He got Patrick Wiercioch (103 GP) in the 2nd round, Zack Smith (282 GP) in the 3rd round, Andre Petersson (1 NHL GP traded to Anaheim still in AHL) in the 4th round as well as Derek Grant (25 GP, still in Ottawa's system) and Mark Borowiecki (21 GP, still in Ottawa's system) in the 5th round. BEST PICK: It's either the aforementioned Smith (282 GP for a 3rd round, 79th overall pick) who has out-pointed first rounder forwards from that year including Joe Colborne, Mattias Tedenby and Zach Boychuk or Robin Lehner. I'm going to go with Lehner because he was taken 46th overall and has played in more NHL games than any other goalie drafted in the 2009 draft (In fact more than any other 2 goalies in the draft combined) and has a decent shot at being a #1 goalie in the not-too-distant future.

12. LOU LAMIORELLO, New Jersey (5 Drafts, 24%, 33 Total Picks, 8 Gems): I didn't really notice Lamoriello at first because he's not near the top in either Percentage or Total Gems but then I noticed that he was one of only 4 GMs to turn up a Gem in every draft but also that he drafted in the back ten of the draft in every year of the analysis. BEST DRAFT: Despite turning up a Gem in every draft, most of Lamoriello's drafts are one pick drafts (Gelinas is the only surefire NHLer of 2009, Henrique in 2008, Halishchuk in 2007, Zharkhov in 2006 until he went back to Russia). 2005 was the only draft where he turned up two surefire NHLers so it's basically the best draft by default. In addition to Jeff Frazee and Patrick Davis (who played 10 NHL games between them) Lamoriello was able to get 185-game defenceman Mark Fraser 84th overall and 242-game defenceman Mark Fayne at 155th overall. BEST PICK: It has to be Adam Henrique. One of only two players in the Top 20 of scoring for 2008 picks taken outside of the 2nd round (Jason Demers being the other) Henrique has a solid 110 points in 194 GP.

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