I was curious about who, among GMs, was the best at picking first round picks, so I did a quick analysis over the 2005-2009 drafts (Starting with 2005 because it was the end of the lock-out when the big rule changes came in, altering the way teams drafted vis-a-vis size, and I ended with 2009 because from 2010 forward you have prospects who might still pan out/bust and it's too hard to decide). So, I did a quick unscientific analysis and divvied up first round picks as 4 categories. Now, I know other factors can weigh into drafting (Scouting, Scouting Directors, nepotism, possible pay-offs) but, ultimately, it's the GM who attaches his name to a pick so that's who I'm going with.
BOOM: A boom is a first rounder who turns into a solid player, relative to where he was drafted. If you get a decent third-liner out of a mid-round/late-round pick, it's a boom. Sure, some booms are better than others (Claude Giroux in the tail-end of the first round smokes Erik Johnson first overall, but for the sakes of this analysis, both are Booms because then you have to start getting into ranking players and that's a whole kettle of fish I have no interest in).
DISAPPOINTIMENT: A disappointment ranks from a first rounder turning into a back-up goalie, to a high-pick being less than a Top 2 line/Top 4 defenceman. So Gilbert Brule, who actually played just shy of 300 games, is a disappointment, not a bust. Thomas Hickey is a disappointment because he's not cemented himself as a Top 4 defenceman. This one is also somewhat subject to where a player was drafted. If you get a serviceable player out of a late first, it's better than a serviceable player out of an early first.
BUSTS: I defined a bust, rather liberally, as a player who either failed to play 100 NHL games (or around that level) or a player who has been thrown on waivers a couple of times. David Fischer, who never played an NHL game, is a bust. Ryan Parent, who played over a 100, but has been on waivers a few times and found himself playing on an AHL deal this season, is also considered, for the purposes of this analysis, a bust. Generally, I'll try to take injuries under consideration, but, in the case of someone like Angelo Esposito, he was trending into this category anyways, so he qualifies as a bust.
NEUTRAL: Guys whom I didn't feel confident ranking in one of the three categories. Tim Erixon, Calvin de Haan and Dylan Olsen are three guys who LOOK they're going to carve out solid NHL careers but are still very much prospects, so they're in this category. Other Neutral picks include picks who, sadly, passed away (Luc Bourdon and Alexei Cherepanov) or players whose worth was never accurately determined either due to injuries or playing in the KHL (Viktor Tikhonov).
THE BEST GMS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD
01. LARRY PLEAU, St. Louis: If you're a rebuilding team looking to hire a GM, you should probably give Larry Pleau a call and see if you can coax him out of his current job and get him to run your draft table. Excluding the GMs who only had 1/2 first rounders over this time period, Pleau is, by far, the most succesful. Despite drafting in the lower half of ranks (Average pick is 16th), Pleau was able to choose a Boom of a pick 75% of the time with no flat-out Busts. His booms come all over the place, the aformentioned Johnson at #1, Alex Pietrangelo at #4 at the top end of the draft, but he also snagged TJ Oshie (24), Patrik Berglund (25) and David Perron (26) all in the last 6 picks of the first round. Even his two Disappoinments are possible to carve out long-term NHL careers in Ian Cole and David Rundblad.
02. DEAN LOMBARDI, Los Angeles: The next 5 GMs after Pleau all had a 67% success rate, but of those GMs Lombardi was the only one with more than 3 first round picks (he had 6) over this time period. Still those 4 first rounders were all good, good players Drew Doughty, Brayden Schenn, Jonathan Bernier, Trevor Lewis, two of those picks make big contributions to the team today, while Schenn was part of the Mike Richards deal and is playing well for Philadelphia while Bernier is Toronto's #1 goalie. Lombardi's non-Booms are Thomas Hickey, a disappointment relative to where he was drafted, but who is playing regularly for the Islanders. The only real whiff was Colten Teubert, termed a Bust for this analysis, though he was able to parlay him in a package to land Dustin Penner who helped the Kings win their first Stanley Cup, so it's not all bad.
03. KEN HOLLAND, Detroit: Despite the fact that he oversaw more drafts than any of the other members of the 67% club, Holland still had an equal amount of picks to all of them except Dean Lombardi. Detroit was fully in win-now mode and repeatedly moved their first rounders over the time period. What's impressive, though, is where he picked, averaging the 25th overall pick, Holland was still able to turn up solid d-men in Jakub Kindl and Brendan Smith. Tom McCollum at #30 was a bust, though.
04. GARTH SNOW, NY Islanders: Snow is also a part of the 67% Boom club, over his three first rounders. Considering one of his picks was a no-brainer (John Tavares at #1, even if he'd gambled on the other possibilities, Victor Hedman or Matt Duchene, he'd still come out a Boom) and the fact that his average pick fell in the #8 region, it's not a spectacular run, but you also have to consider that none of this three first rounders were Busts. Josh Bailey plays a reliable two-way game and Calvin de Haan is finally looking like he might have his injuries behind him after a solid 2013-14 audition.
05. BRYAN MURRAY, Ottawa: Murray's 67% Boom rate over three picks is equal to the guys below him, also with three picks, but Murray's non-Boom is a Bust in Jim O'Brien. What makes Murray's two first round booms worthy of praise is that neither pick came in the Top 5. Jared Cowen, despite his recent struggles, still should end up as a Top 4 d-man for a long time and he got him at #9. Erik Karlsson, in the discussion for most dynamic d-men in the NHL, at #15 is a straight-up steal.
06. SCOTT HOWSON, Columbus: Nikita Filatov is all that separates Howson from being alone at #3. It's a bust, and a big, big bust. But Howson's other picks over this time period were excellent: Jakub Voracek is a big-time NHL scorer whom Howson parlayed in the ill-fated Jeff Carter deal and John Moore is playing regular minutes for the Stanley Cup finalist NY Rangers right now. But, Filatov is hard to overlook, one of the biggest Busts in recent NHL history.
07. GEORGE MCPHEE, Washington: McPhee is very much a Boom-or-Bust GM at the draft table. Of 8 first rounders over this period, McPhee turned up Boom Picks 5 times, but those other 3 were flat-out Busts. When he scores, he scores big: Nicklas Backstrom at #4,Karl Alzner at #5, Semyon Varlamov at #23,Marcus Johansson at #24, and John Carlson at #27. But when he busts, he busts hard: Sasha Pokulok at #14 (0 NHL games), Anton Gustafsson at #21 (0 NHL games) and Joe Finley at #27 (21 NHL games). Consider the fact that if you had the benefit of hindsight, you could replace those threes combined 21 NHL games with Martin Hanzal's 456 GP (three spots after Pokulok), Matt Niskanen's 491 GP (1 spot after Finley) and Jordan Eberle's 275 GP (1 spot after Gustafsson).
08. GLEN SATHER, NY Rangers: A 60% Boom rate, Sather acquired some of the building blocks for his 2013-14 Stanley Cup finalists right through his first round picks: Marc Staal in 2005, Chris Kreider in 2009, and his 2008 first rounder (Michael Del Zotto) he dealt to Nashville for Kevin Klein whose currently playing for the Rangers. His only two whiffs are one that was nobody's fault (the sad case of Alexei Cherepanov) and Bob Sanguinetti. Not bad for a GM with a reputation of trading for and signing most of his players.
09. BOB GAINEY, Montreal: Gainey's another GM with a 60% Boom Rate. His hits are big hits (Ryan McDonagh and Max Pacioretty in 2007 and Carey Price in 2005). His miss is a huge one, too, David Fischer at #20 in 2006 when Claude Giroux went two picks later.
10. DON MALONEY, Phoenix: Maloney only oversaw three Phoenix drafts over this time period, but he was able to choose Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Mikkel Boedker and Kyle Turris. Unfortunately, he also chose Viktor Tikhonov (Who went to play in the KHL rather than stick it out in the AHL) and Nick Ross (Who never played an NHL game). He's also in the 60% club.
11. KEVIN LOWE, Edmonton: One draft could have completely changed Lowe's status and had him near the top of this list, instead of at #11 with a 60% Boom Rate and that was the 2007 draft. Lowe started off well by taking Sam Gagner at #6, but then went off the rails with Alex Plante (10 NHL games) at #15 (Max Pacioretty went just 7 picks later) and Riley Nash (Generously labeled a Disappointment for this analysis with 110 GP) at #21 (Mikael Backlund went just 3 picks later). Imagine if Lowe's list of first rounders for this exercise were Sam Gagner, Jordan Eberle (nabbed at #22 in 2008), Pacioretty and Backlund.
Tomorrow: I'll give you the list of the 10 Worst GMs over this time period. Hint: Five of the Top 10 are currently GMs in the NHL
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